9/24/2016 Update on the positions and returns

Brief update:

Mouse	XLB	-1.34%
Rabbit	Date	Return	Days
NVR	12/16/2015	-0.45%	283
CASY	5/12/2016	3.21%	135
AVB	5/24/2016	2.21%	123
AEM	6/7/2016	8.30%	109
AMED	6/16/2016	-3.29%	100
FRO	6/27/2016	-8.49%	89
ASTE	7/12/2016	-1.16%	74
BSET	8/3/2016	-0.64%	52
MFC	9/1/2016	2.71%	23
CFFN	9/12/2016	0.07%	12
Turtle	Date	Return	Days
BT	8/11/2015	-25.88%	410
DY	10/30/2015	7.52%	330
TMK	11/23/2015	6.26%	306
UPLMQ	12/1/2015	25.19%	298
CMP	2/19/2016	7.67%	218
NVR	2/22/2016	3.75%	215
ENOC	3/15/2016	-22.68%	193
AMWD	3/17/2016	18.11%	191
ESRX	6/13/2016	-6.02%	103
SFM	9/8/2016	4.62%	16
	Since 5/31/2011	Annualized
S&P	60.92%	9.36%
Mouse	122.05%	16.18%
Rabbit	61.51%	9.43%
Turtle	105.16%	14.46%
	Previous	YTD
S&P	51.94%	5.91%
Mouse	77.79%	24.89%
Rabbit	57.21%	2.74%
Turtle	58.35%	29.56%

The Rabbit’s days are numbered…

Tim

9/23/2016 Being the Anti-Obama Isn't Enough

The "unfairness" of our major free trade agreements isn't in price manipulation or one way tariffs.

The problem is in the fact that we are excessively taxing and regulating, giving ourselves an unfair disadvantage.

Some regulation is necessary, as well as some taxation -- but if you over-tax you'll under-collect because you'll drive business out of the country.

Hillary and Trump are both wrong.

But Obama isn't right either.

So to examine who's the most "wrong" here -- the answer is free trade AND competitive business climate (low taxes and regulation). If you HAVE to maintain some regulations then you make up for the cost of those regulations in lower taxes to keep business competitive. How do they score?

Gary Johnson: correct on both.
Stein: wrong on both.
Clinton: wrong on both.
Trump: right on taxes and regulation, but wrong on trade.

These compare to Obama who is right on trade, but wrong on taxes and regulation.

Trump is indeed the anti-Obama here, but he'll just make the opposite mistakes and will not solve the problem, but merely create a different problem.

9/12/2016 Rabbit Trade

The Rabbit sold AVA and bought CFFN with a favorable gap.

9/9/2016 Today's Gap Setup, and the Probable Change for January 1

On an earlier post I got a question about trading gaps.  For each day I calculate a potential trade for the Rabbit and the Turtle.

Since there is a target holding period for each stock and some additional internal metrics for both technical and fundamental considerations, I calculate a trading gap that will shrink over time.  So, if I have a very favorable gap I may make a trade some days (or weeks) early because of the gap.  If there is no gap I'll wait out the day and not make a trade.

For the Rabbit the potential trade setup is to sell ASTE and buy AMWD if there is a 7% or better gap toward the end of the day.

For the Turtle the potential trade setup is to sell UPLMQ and to buy SPLS is there is a 10% or better gap toward the end of the day.

Also, the 2016 returns for the Turtle was substantially higher than those for the Rabbit.  The Turtle is set for an average holding period of 1920 days, and the Rabbit for 108 days.  It appears that the holding period for the Rabbit is too short for fundamental conditions to overcome technical ones, and if the underperformance continues through the end of this year I will combine the two models into a single model of 20 stocks set for the longer holding period.

9/7/2016 Turtle Trade

The Turtle sold OKE and bought SFM with a 14% favorable gap.

The 160% profit was nice to see, too.