Sector Model
|
XLE
|
-1.50%
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-47.48%
|
810
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
42.80%
|
706
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
95.33%
|
683
|
CMP
|
2/19/2016
|
2.00%
|
618
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
103.57%
|
615
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
46.23%
|
591
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
0.68%
|
535
|
AEM
|
6/7/2016
|
-8.68%
|
509
|
ESRX
|
6/13/2016
|
-18.07%
|
503
|
AMED
|
6/16/2016
|
-0.22%
|
500
|
FRO
|
6/27/2016
|
-13.48%
|
489
|
ASTE
|
7/12/2016
|
-10.64%
|
474
|
MFC
|
9/1/2016
|
53.20%
|
423
|
SFM
|
9/8/2016
|
-8.89%
|
416
|
CFFN
|
9/12/2016
|
7.65%
|
412
|
FIG
|
12/6/2016
|
57.25%
|
327
|
FOSL
|
5/11/2017
|
-39.20%
|
171
|
HIBB
|
7/25/2017
|
2.29%
|
96
|
FOSL
|
7/27/2017
|
-20.47%
|
94
|
HZO
|
8/1/2017
|
6.73%
|
89
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
S&P
|
Annualized
|
10.67%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
17.13%
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
13.20%
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
91.58%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
175.69%
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
121.55%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
6.46%
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
2.54%
|
|
Previous
|
2017
|
||
S&P
|
66.43%
|
15.11%
|
|
Sector Model
|
120.54%
|
25.01%
|
|
Full Model
|
91.27%
|
15.83%
|
The model continues to outperform, with the Sector Model
maintaining a lead for an IRA tax free account and the Full Model maintaining
the lead for a taxable account.
The Full Model calculates holding periods based on after tax
returns, to maximize the annualized return rate in a regular investment
account.
The chart is generated by using the return rates of all
stocks selected by the model since 5/31/2011, even after they were sold, in
order to determine the ideal holding period.
Currently that ideal holding period for any given stock is 2289 calendar
days.
There are basically two types of trades: momentum and mean
reversion.
And there are two types of investment: passive and active.
Passive investment is simply purchasing an index fund and
holding it into retirement. For 401Ks,
that’s about the only choice anyone has.
For anyone who has moved a 401K into a self driven IRA
account, the options are whether to try to trade actively or to stick with
another index fund. SPY is the simplest –
an ETF that mimics the return of the entire S&P index of 500 large cap
stocks. For the vast majority of folks
this is infinitely better than trying to actively trade, because in active
trading you are fighting against high frequency trading robots that self adapt
to whatever tactic will scare you into selling low and trick you into buying
high.
I know, because that’s exactly what happened to me when I
started trading.
I couldn’t compete with those lightning fast robots.
So I made my own robot – one so glacially slow that it would
starve out both the fast robots and the tax man. It won’t make 60% a year. But it won’t lose 90% of my retirement to
those twin thieves either.
It’s also slow enough to follow, if you’d like.
You’re welcome.
Tim
