5/30/2018 Sector Trade

The Sector Model sold XLI and bought XLP.

5/23/2018 Potential Sector Trade

Unless there is an unfavorable gap, the Sector Model will sell XLV and buy XLI tomorrow.

5/22/2018 Full Model Fully Developed

Sector Model	XLV	0.25%
Full Model	Date	Return	Days
BT	8/11/2015	-57.48%	1015
TMK	11/23/2015	46.33%	911
NVR	12/16/2015	82.37%	888
CMP	2/19/2016	8.53%	823
NVR	2/22/2016	90.06%	820
AMWD	3/17/2016	29.63%	796
CASY	5/12/2016	-10.60%	740
AEM	6/7/2016	-13.40%	714
ESRX	6/13/2016	0.80%	708
AMED	6/16/2016	46.78%	705
FRO	6/27/2016	-32.50%	694
ASTE	7/12/2016	2.81%	679
MFC	9/1/2016	52.92%	628
SFM	9/8/2016	11.59%	621
CFFN	9/12/2016	2.11%	617
FOSL	5/11/2017	37.19%	376
HIBB	7/25/2017	116.79%	301
FOSL	7/27/2017	79.44%	299
HZO	8/1/2017	60.61%	294
CMPR	12/27/2017	15.62%	146
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	10.70%
Sector Model	Annualized	15.06%
Full Model	Annualized	15.14%
S&P	Total	103.22%
Sector Model	Total	166.16%
Full Model	Total	167.36%
Sector Model	Advantage	4.37%
Full Model	Advantage	4.44%
	Previous	2018
S&P	98.38%	2.44%
Sector Model	172.95%	1.68%
Full Model	145.63%	8.84%

Coming out of radio silence, some plans for the future.

The Full Model is now consistently beating the earlier fundamental parameters I originally experimented with, and is now ahead of the Sector Model.  The plan was to find a long term stock model that could beat both the S&P and the Sector Model, and it appears that after 7 years of live trading, I’m there.

That said, I’ll continue to post the Sector Model at least through the end of this year.  But the plan has always been to have a full stock model as an open portfolio.

The holding period for the average stock is set at 2061 days, and may finally be topped out.  At 5.6 years on average, the typical trade in a 20 position portfolio is 103 calendar days. 

That’s a painfully easy portfolio to manage.  Even a 100 position portfolio would only trade once every three weeks.

Exciting?  No.  But that’s a good thing.

Tim

5/17/2018 Potential Sector Trade

Apologies for the long silence.  One of the problems of a longer holding model is that sometimes there is nothing to say.

In my case, there were no changes to the investments, but a lot of changes in my day job and life in general.

I'm still in a bit of flux on the personal level, but I will post every potential trade ahead of time.  Ultimately, I'm planning an open portfolio with all trades stated before they happen.

Tomorrow the Sector Model faces a potential trade of selling XLI and buying XLV.  The only thing to prevent such a trade would be a negative gap.

A positive gap would be XLI up in price more than XLV (or down in price less). So if XLI is down 5% but XLV is down 5.1%, that would be a "positive gap" between them.  Conversely, if XLV were up 6% but XLI up 5%, that would be a "negative gap" between them.  In the first case we would have a net gain of 0.1%, and in the second case a net loss of 1%.

Good trading tomorrow, and next month the Full Model will be due for a trade.