In a few weeks I'll be moving my posts to a new location.
I'll post details about the new location and format when it is available. In the meantime, I will no longer post any trades on this site.
The Full Model is steady enough to stand on its own for a few weeks, but the new site will likely not include the Sector Model, and the XLV trade posted will grow stale without notice.
The next post will give information about the new site and features.
Until then, stay sane out there!
Tim
Friday, April 12, 2019
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Friday, March 29, 2019
Saturday, March 23, 2019
3/23/2019 About that Yield Curve
Sector Model
|
XLE | XLU
|
-1.38%
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-49.75%
|
1320
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
36.53%
|
1216
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
67.66%
|
1193
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
74.72%
|
1125
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
11.16%
|
1101
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
11.14%
|
1045
|
MFC
|
9/1/2016
|
36.73%
|
933
|
SFM
|
9/8/2016
|
14.89%
|
926
|
CFFN
|
9/12/2016
|
4.81%
|
922
|
FOSL
|
5/11/2017
|
-3.88%
|
681
|
HIBB
|
7/25/2017
|
65.65%
|
606
|
FOSL
|
7/27/2017
|
25.72%
|
604
|
HZO
|
8/1/2017
|
21.68%
|
599
|
BCE
|
5/31/2018
|
13.63%
|
296
|
DFS
|
10/21/2018
|
-4.26%
|
153
|
CL
|
10/29/2018
|
10.39%
|
145
|
ATVI
|
11/23/2018
|
-7.94%
|
120
|
KMI
|
12/31/2018
|
27.36%
|
82
|
ALLE
|
2/20/2019
|
-0.85%
|
31
|
AMAT
|
3/5/2019
|
4.70%
|
18
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
S&P
|
Annualized
|
9.80%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
13.99%
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
12.32%
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
107.59%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
178.03%
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
147.86%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
4.18%
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
2.52%
|
|
Previous
|
2019
|
||
S&P
|
85.79%
|
11.74%
|
|
Sector Model
|
129.27%
|
18.44%
|
|
Full Model
|
122.54%
|
11.38%
|
So, after 11 years of waiting, we finally got an inverted
yield curve.
Bear market?
Well, not quite. An
inverted yield curve usually PRECEDES a bear market, but sometimes by a couple
of years.
I’ve been having computer troubles of late, and now have a
backup computer – which I’m restoring data to.
I had limited internet access the other day and couldn’t report the
switch to XLE and XLU.
To make matters worse I wasn’t able to get into the XLU
position and doubled down in XLE. So
while the model is reporting XLE and XLU the returns posted reflect that I’m in
XLE.
I’m still planning to drop reporting on the Sector Model at
some point, not that the Full Model is functioning on par with it.
As for the broad market, the Fed has blinked, but they haven’t
panicked yet. They were slightly late to
panic in 2001, and a little early in 2008, but there’s no point in panicking
until they do, and barely a point to panic even then.
Tim
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Sunday, March 3, 2019
3/3/2019 Possible Trade This Week
Sector Model
|
XLV
|
1.42%
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-49.96%
|
1300
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
41.00%
|
1196
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
61.57%
|
1173
|
CMP
|
2/19/2016
|
-11.27%
|
1108
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
68.38%
|
1105
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
25.28%
|
1081
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
21.07%
|
1025
|
MFC
|
9/1/2016
|
37.90%
|
913
|
SFM
|
9/8/2016
|
19.31%
|
906
|
CFFN
|
9/12/2016
|
12.48%
|
902
|
FOSL
|
5/11/2017
|
10.46%
|
661
|
HIBB
|
7/25/2017
|
35.57%
|
586
|
FOSL
|
7/27/2017
|
44.47%
|
584
|
HZO
|
8/1/2017
|
27.74%
|
579
|
BCE
|
5/31/2018
|
11.82%
|
276
|
DFS
|
10/21/2018
|
-2.75%
|
133
|
CL
|
10/29/2018
|
11.90%
|
125
|
ATVI
|
11/23/2018
|
-18.48%
|
100
|
KMI
|
12/31/2018
|
23.65%
|
62
|
ALLE
|
2/20/2019
|
1.67%
|
11
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
S&P
|
Annualized
|
9.87%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
13.45%
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
12.54%
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
107.51%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
166.14%
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
149.94%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
3.58%
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
2.67%
|
|
Previous
|
2019
|
||
S&P
|
85.79%
|
11.69%
|
|
Sector Model
|
129.27%
|
20.29%
|
|
Full Model
|
122.54%
|
12.31%
|
The 2019 numbers might be slightly off. I had a computer crash and I’m restoring my
files.
There is a potential to trade CMP for AMAT this week. Waiting for the setup to complete.
There is a potential to trade CMP for AMAT this week. Waiting for the setup to complete.
Tim
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