Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Monday, December 15, 2014
Sunday, December 14, 2014
12/14/2014 In Confusion There is Profit
|
Sector Model
|
XLB
|
0.00%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
ESI
|
8/4/2014
|
-42.28%
|
132
|
|
KFY
|
9/29/2014
|
1.92%
|
76
|
|
EDU
|
10/27/2014
|
-5.91%
|
48
|
|
PLT
|
11/6/2014
|
-0.71%
|
38
|
|
UVV
|
12/2/2014
|
4.43%
|
12
|
|
FSLR
|
12/5/2014
|
-9.85%
|
9
|
|
JOY
|
12/8/2014
|
-9.93%
|
6
|
|
SWHC
|
12/9/2014
|
-0.31%
|
5
|
|
MRVL
|
12/10/2014
|
-3.80%
|
4
|
|
RS
|
12/11/2014
|
-4.53%
|
3
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
11.89%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
24.24%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
20.73%
|
No rotation.
Please note: the XLB current return is actually about -4.5%,
but I reset the model after all of the market action this week. The listed “0%” is from the reset, but the
annualized return of “24.24%” since 5/31/2011 is correct.
It’s been a hard week for both models. Here is the sector model for the year:
Still above the benchmark, but that could change after
another week like this last one.
Basic Materials hasn’t been hit as hard as energy stocks,
and my FLSR and JOY positions have been soundly punished – down almost 10%
apiece.
Nevertheless, the market typically does well whenever the
sector model is in XLB. In fact, the
market typically does TWICE as well during an XLB call as it does during any
other position.
Granted, this could be the exception, but cheap materials
(and cheap energy, for that matter), drive down the costs of making things,
which is good for earnings and good for the consumer as well. We should start seeing some optimism
returning in a few days.
As for those intraday rotations – the recent gyrations have
been giving me some favorable gaps to trade.
If I see a favorable gap of 2% or better I’ll be open to a trade. Right now the trading options I’m looking at
are:
|
Sell
|
Buy
|
|
EDU
|
QCOM
|
|
KFY
|
INT
|
As Tony Curtis said in Operation Petticoat, “in confusion
there is profit.” In weeks of market
terror, those gaps are a nice little gift J.
But I can’t post those kinds of gaps ahead of time. I just have to peek in on a lunch break and
take one if it happens.
Tim
Thursday, December 11, 2014
12/11/2014 Market at Fair Value
The balance of breadth, price, and volume indicates that the market is at fair value.
Would be a good point for it to stabilize.
Would be a good point for it to stabilize.
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
12/10/2014 Intraday Trade
Because of a better than 1% favorable gap at the end of the day, I sold CPSI and bought MRVL before the close.
Monday, December 8, 2014
12/8/2014 Putting the Market out of its misery
|
Sector Model
|
XLB
|
-0.37%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
SR
|
6/2/2014
|
-33.00%
|
189
|
|
ESI
|
8/4/2014
|
-37.18%
|
126
|
|
KFY
|
9/29/2014
|
5.33%
|
70
|
|
EDU
|
10/27/2014
|
-6.04%
|
42
|
|
PLT
|
11/6/2014
|
0.35%
|
32
|
|
BKE
|
11/10/2014
|
-0.36%
|
28
|
|
CPSI
|
11/17/2014
|
-4.10%
|
21
|
|
UVV
|
12/2/2014
|
1.11%
|
6
|
|
FSLR
|
12/5/2014
|
-4.43%
|
3
|
|
JOY
|
12/8/2014
|
-2.36%
|
0
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
12.86%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
25.63%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
21.68%
|
Rotation: selling SR; buying SWHC.
Time to look at the best industries again:
|
CHEMSPEC
|
|
COAL
|
|
EDUC
|
|
ELECTRNX
|
|
FUNL SVC
|
|
GASDIVRS
|
|
POWER
|
|
RECREATE
|
|
STEEL
|
|
WIRELESS
|
So, we recently bought UVV in the Tobacco industry, are
looking at SWHC in the “recreational” firearms industry, and… Funeral Services
are in the target buy zone as well.
How comforting.
Tim
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