|
Small Portfolio
|
XLF & IAU
|
10.60%
|
|
|
Position
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
VG
|
10/27/2011
|
-34.65%
|
297
|
|
BT
|
1/4/2012
|
13.29%
|
228
|
|
SAI
|
5/30/2012
|
9.12%
|
81
|
|
XEC
|
6/5/2012
|
22.59%
|
75
|
|
DECK
|
6/15/2012
|
5.79%
|
65
|
|
CVX
|
7/5/2012
|
5.76%
|
45
|
|
RIMM
|
7/16/2012
|
3.03%
|
34
|
|
UEIC
|
7/30/2012
|
22.38%
|
20
|
|
QSII
|
8/6/2012
|
11.55%
|
13
|
|
CECO
|
8/9/2012
|
-4.86%
|
10
|
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
4.44%
|
|
|
Small Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
8.68%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
18.71%
|
No rotation tomorrow, but there will be one by next Monday (at
the latest).
Behind the scenes, mining and railroad stocks continue to
accumulate money-flow, and the next rotation may pick one of those stocks.
The combination of those two industries points to another
liquidity rally, but I seriously doubt that it will happen. Sometimes the big players are wrong. The only true protection for those times when
technicals fail is a solid long term fundamental basis for the stocks in our
portfolio.
Of the ten worst industries on my model, four of them are in
the utilities sector, and indeed on my sector model XLU is now the weakest
sector. These also point to a break out
to new highs on the S&P – PREDICATED on central bank liquidity. The smart money is betting on QE3. As I said, sometimes the smart money is
wrong.
In the long run, the market goes up. In the short run, well… we can enjoy the ride
while it lasts.
But the day it becomes obvious uncle Ben isn’t pouring any
more syrup on our flapjacks, watch out.
Tim
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