10/20/2013 Changing the Pace

Sector Model	XLK	3.20%
Large Portfolio	Date	Return	Days
ABX	4/11/2013	-23.28%	192
TTM	5/6/2013	17.62%	167
VAR	8/2/2013	7.43%	79
QCOM	9/3/2013	3.20%	47
NEM	9/30/2013	-3.79%	20
BCR	10/4/2013	8.52%	16
BAX	10/7/2013	1.52%	13
BDX	10/11/2013	3.61%	9
DECK	10/15/2013	-3.25%	5
ED	10/18/2013	0.19%	2
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	11.49%
Sector Model	Annualized	25.05%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	30.88%
S&P	Total	29.68%
Sector Model	Total	70.62%
Large Portfolio	Total	90.24%
Sector Model	Advantage	13.56%
Large Portfolio	Advantage	19.39%
	Previous	YTD
S&P	6.02%	22.32%
Sector Model	27.01%	34.33%
Large Portfolio	46.63%	29.74%

 

Rotation: selling VAR; buying ISRG.

This is purely a fundamental exchange.  Both of these companies are in the same industry.

In any case, from time to time I’ll expand the reporting to list all the return metrics.  Since the launch of the model, the S&P has gained a little under 30%, and the Mousetrap has gained a little over 90%.  Basically triple the returns.

Although both the full Mousetrap and the Sector model have undergone some degree of refinement, the Sector model has improved by a greater amount.  Part of the strength of the sector model is the fact that it trades toward the close, rather than trying to navigate gaps on the open.

Trading toward the close would improve the performance of the full model by about 5% a year, but it would be impossible for anyone to follow in real time.  Kind of a Catch-22.  Do I want a blog that averages 35% per year that no one could follow, or one that averages 30% per year that people can. 

Right: better a useful 30% return rate than a useless 35%.

And, with that in mind, I am also planning to back off of intra-week trades on the full model, and set trades for weekend readers.  The blog is for real schlubs like me who work for a living and don’t have time to sit there and watch all the market ticks and tricks.

The sector model will continue to trade in real time, and the full model will trade once a week.   That’s about as easy to follow as possible.

A private fund would trade toward the close, but this isn’t a private fund.  It’s just a blog.

Tim