|
Style Model
|
Small Value
|
||
|
Sector Model
|
XLU
|
0.12%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
ABX
|
4/11/2013
|
-29.03%
|
429
|
|
BX
|
4/14/2014
|
11.60%
|
61
|
|
TIVO
|
4/23/2014
|
0.66%
|
52
|
|
SHOO
|
4/28/2014
|
-9.69%
|
47
|
|
PWR
|
5/12/2014
|
1.07%
|
33
|
|
JRN
|
5/19/2014
|
0.87%
|
26
|
|
BT
|
5/22/2014
|
3.39%
|
23
|
|
PM
|
5/27/2014
|
2.17%
|
18
|
|
SR
|
6/2/2014
|
-4.77%
|
12
|
|
CFI
|
6/9/2014
|
-0.82%
|
5
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
12.73%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
25.85%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
25.73%
|
Rotation: selling ABX; buying FRAN.
The Sector Model continues to stall:
Yes, yes, that’s still a good lead for the year, but the
recent stall in the Sector Model is happening because it is market cap
weighted, while small caps are strengthening behind the scenes.
|
Small Value
|
Mid Value
|
Mid Blend
|
Small Growth
|
Small Blend
|
Large Value
|
Large Growth
|
Large Blend
|
Mid Growth
|
|
|
Utilities
|
1
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
9
|
12
|
26
|
28
|
52
|
|
Finance
|
3
|
6
|
14
|
17
|
21
|
25
|
38
|
39
|
62
|
|
Staples
|
4
|
8
|
15
|
19
|
23
|
27
|
41
|
43
|
65
|
|
Materials
|
10
|
20
|
31
|
33
|
37
|
44
|
58
|
59
|
74
|
|
Healthcare
|
11
|
22
|
32
|
34
|
40
|
48
|
60
|
61
|
75
|
|
Industrial
|
13
|
24
|
35
|
36
|
45
|
51
|
63
|
64
|
76
|
|
Technology
|
16
|
29
|
42
|
49
|
53
|
55
|
66
|
67
|
77
|
|
Cyclicals
|
18
|
30
|
47
|
50
|
54
|
56
|
69
|
70
|
78
|
|
Energy
|
46
|
57
|
68
|
71
|
72
|
73
|
79
|
80
|
81
|
Note that all the Large styles are in the poor sections of
the expected performance matrix.
Small Value is the
most bullish of the styles, but Utilities
is a bearish sector.
If we were in an obvious bear market I’d be looking for a
rally. With this “stealth correction”
behavior, though, I’m not sure what to say about the market as a whole.
I spoke of the “stealth correction” behavior a few weeks
ago. Basically this means that the
various industries have been taking turns correcting while the broad market
average just trundles along with little visible concern. If you’ve been holding SPY all year you’ve
been bored out of your mind. If you’ve
been picking stocks you’ve had a more exciting time (and not in a good way).
My GUESS (and this is only a guess) is that the market
averages will remain boring while large caps stall and small caps recover.
I also expect this to reflect negatively for the Sector
Model in the extreme short term, since small cap optimism isn’t a natural fit
for Utilities.
But these are only guesses.
The Sector Model is designed to work in broad brush strokes. Fine tuning is meant for the Full Model. As we can see over the past three years,
there is very little difference in performance over time.
What does this mean for you men out there? It means this: forget about the market and
have fun with your kids.
Tim
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