|
Sector Model
|
XLE
|
-7.25%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
PWR
|
3/9/2015
|
-18.60%
|
168
|
|
CBI
|
4/2/2015
|
-10.22%
|
144
|
|
MTZ
|
4/9/2015
|
-20.24%
|
137
|
|
DRQ
|
5/15/2015
|
-25.82%
|
101
|
|
RES
|
5/19/2015
|
-31.84%
|
97
|
|
NOV
|
6/23/2015
|
-24.31%
|
62
|
|
INT
|
7/7/2015
|
-18.73%
|
48
|
|
FFIC
|
8/3/2015
|
-1.83%
|
21
|
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-6.28%
|
13
|
|
TM
|
8/12/2015
|
-7.72%
|
12
|
|
(Since
5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
9.44%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
19.22%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
11.71%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
46.51%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
110.44%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
59.81%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
9.77%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
2.27%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2015
|
||
|
S&P
|
53.06%
|
-4.27%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
142.84%
|
-13.34%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
101.13%
|
-20.55%
|
As I wrote on 7/5/2015, we have entered
a bear market configuration.
That said, bears don’t normally go straight down – and they
don’t always reach a full bear close of 20%.
Right now we are 10% down from the most recent high on the
DOW. If we stop before 20%, we will only
have a “correction.”
What does this mean?
If you are a market timer, you may or may not be too late.
If you are not a market timer, this means nothing at all.
Painful? Absolutely! Meaningful?
No. If you are not a market
timer, this is an annoying interlude in a long term plan.
The Sector Model is now slightly above the long term
trend. It has had an annoying year to
date, but the long term trend couldn’t possibly be more normal.
And the good news is that the sector configurations have
backed up to a market top configuration.
The start of the week could be appalling, but the market should rally soon.
We are now BACK into a market top configuration.
I just got back from vacation. It was an expensive time away, but I wouldn’t
have made any changes even if I were home the whole time.
Tim
No comments:
Post a Comment