11/30/2015 Trade Notice

The Rabbit and Turtle models sold WEC and bought CLF with a 3% favorable gap.

11/26/2015 Mouse, Rabbit, and Turtle

Mouse	XLE	1.20%
Rabbit	Date	Return	Days
BT	8/11/2015	2.40%	107
TM	8/12/2015	-3.99%	106
MMP	9/4/2015	-8.23%	83
ED	9/17/2015	-1.36%	70
DY	10/30/2015	13.68%	27
RJF	11/2/2015	5.70%	24
CVS	11/6/2015	-5.67%	20
WEC	11/13/2015	-0.85%	13
TMK	11/23/2015	0.28%	3
WM	11/25/2015	0.09%	1
Turtle	Date	Return	Days
BT	8/11/2015	2.40%	107
TM	8/12/2015	-3.99%	106
MMP	9/4/2015	-8.23%	83
ED	9/17/2015	-1.36%	70
DY	10/30/2015	13.68%	27
RJF	11/2/2015	5.70%	24
CVS	11/6/2015	-5.67%	20
WEC	11/13/2015	-0.85%	13
TMK	11/23/2015	0.28%	3
WM	11/25/2015	0.09%	1
	Since 5/31/2011	Annualized
S&P	55.28%	10.30%
Mouse	100.93%	16.81%
Rabbit	72.66%	12.93%
Turtle	72.66%	12.93%

As promised for the past three years, I am finally adding a long term component to the model. To keep things straight and simple, I now have three names for the three types of the model: Mouse, Rabbit, and Turtle.

The Mouse is the small ETF model.

The Rabbit is the short term stock rotation appropriate for IRA accounts.

The Turtle is the long term stock holding model appropriate for Taxable accounts.

Right now the Turtle is just a clone of the Rabbit, but with each new trade the Rabbit and Turtle will part company.

The average holding period on the Mouse is about 1 month.

The average holding period on the Rabbit is about 3 months.

The average holding period on the Turtle is a little over 4 years – approximately one business cycle.

The holding periods are calculated from the median return rates on all stocks ever selected by the model since 5/31/2011:

The Rabbit is calculated from the best holding period in an IRA account, and the Turtle is calculated from the best holding period in a Taxed account.

A slight complication to the blog, but a necessary one. Full diversification requires 20 positions, with options for both Taxed and non-Taxed accounts.

Tim

11/25/2015 Trade Notice

The Full Model sold EA and bought WM with a 3% favorable gap.

11/23/2015 Trade Notice

The Full Model sold STR and bought TMK.

11/8/2015 "Advice" while I'm still unqualified to give it....

Sector Model	XLE	4.99%
Full Model	Date	Return	Days
BT	8/11/2015	-2.65%	89
TM	8/12/2015	-4.72%	88
MMP	9/4/2015	-3.24%	65
ED	9/17/2015	-2.52%	52
NYT	10/21/2015	4.77%	18
EA	10/22/2015	-0.56%	17
DY	10/30/2015	7.97%	9
RJF	11/2/2015	5.81%	6
STR	11/3/2015	-7.84%	5
CVS	11/6/2015	-0.84%	2
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	10.54%
Sector Model	Annualized	17.60%
Full Model	Annualized	13.23%
S&P	Total	56.05%
Sector Model	Total	105.44%
Full Model	Total	73.66%
Sector Model	Advantage	7.06%
Full Model	Advantage	2.69%
	Previous	2015
S&P	53.06%	1.96%
Sector Model	142.84%	-15.40%
Full Model	101.13%	-13.66%

The models seem to be stabilizing from their insufferable mean reversion.  The sector model broke through the long term median regression and then reversed back upward.  It is now once again intensely, adamantly, insistently, and comfortingly, “normal.”

Meanwhile the sector ratios are sitting on a perfectly configured market top.

Since my model is the canary in the coal mine, I would venture a guess that the pain in the market is not over by a long shot.

And of course my response is to do nothing. I don’t time, but I always wish I could.

The Fed is still the main player in everyone’s mind.  The good job report on Friday was cause for a market panic that Yellen might actually pull the trigger next month.

I have to apologize for being scarce.  Truth is that I’m studying for a series 65 investment advisor test.  Once I pass I’ll have to put a more persistent disclaimer on my posts.  But for now I’m just a fellow amateur trying to figure out how to lose money slower than the stock market.

The purpose of the blog has always been to keep myself honest.  If I post my trades and reasons for making them, then I won’t trade on blind instinct.  That hasn’t always worked out so well, but it’s been far better than the experience I had on trades before creating this blog.

So my advice for those making their own trades – while I’m still an amateur and my advice counts for nothing: be ABLE to have your own “blog” to justify your trades.  You won’t do as bad in your private trades.

You won’t necessarily get rich, but if you do well you won’t have to worry about the basic necessities when you aren’t able to work anymore.

And you never know what obstacles or evil will you may encounter between now and retirement.  Plan for the worst, save the most, and trade as slow as possible.

Advice over, especially since I’m “not qualified” to give advice, and will have to have a disclaimer whenever I finally am.

Tim

11/6/2015 Trade Notice

The full model sold ORA and bought CVS.

11/3/2015 Trade Notice

The Full Model sold INT and bought STR.

11/2/2015 Trade Notice

The Full Model sold IPG and bought RJF.