11/8/2015 "Advice" while I'm still unqualified to give it....

Sector Model	XLE	4.99%
Full Model	Date	Return	Days
BT	8/11/2015	-2.65%	89
TM	8/12/2015	-4.72%	88
MMP	9/4/2015	-3.24%	65
ED	9/17/2015	-2.52%	52
NYT	10/21/2015	4.77%	18
EA	10/22/2015	-0.56%	17
DY	10/30/2015	7.97%	9
RJF	11/2/2015	5.81%	6
STR	11/3/2015	-7.84%	5
CVS	11/6/2015	-0.84%	2
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	10.54%
Sector Model	Annualized	17.60%
Full Model	Annualized	13.23%
S&P	Total	56.05%
Sector Model	Total	105.44%
Full Model	Total	73.66%
Sector Model	Advantage	7.06%
Full Model	Advantage	2.69%
	Previous	2015
S&P	53.06%	1.96%
Sector Model	142.84%	-15.40%
Full Model	101.13%	-13.66%

The models seem to be stabilizing from their insufferable mean reversion.  The sector model broke through the long term median regression and then reversed back upward.  It is now once again intensely, adamantly, insistently, and comfortingly, “normal.”

Meanwhile the sector ratios are sitting on a perfectly configured market top.

Since my model is the canary in the coal mine, I would venture a guess that the pain in the market is not over by a long shot.

And of course my response is to do nothing. I don’t time, but I always wish I could.

The Fed is still the main player in everyone’s mind.  The good job report on Friday was cause for a market panic that Yellen might actually pull the trigger next month.

I have to apologize for being scarce.  Truth is that I’m studying for a series 65 investment advisor test.  Once I pass I’ll have to put a more persistent disclaimer on my posts.  But for now I’m just a fellow amateur trying to figure out how to lose money slower than the stock market.

The purpose of the blog has always been to keep myself honest.  If I post my trades and reasons for making them, then I won’t trade on blind instinct.  That hasn’t always worked out so well, but it’s been far better than the experience I had on trades before creating this blog.

So my advice for those making their own trades – while I’m still an amateur and my advice counts for nothing: be ABLE to have your own “blog” to justify your trades.  You won’t do as bad in your private trades.

You won’t necessarily get rich, but if you do well you won’t have to worry about the basic necessities when you aren’t able to work anymore.

And you never know what obstacles or evil will you may encounter between now and retirement.  Plan for the worst, save the most, and trade as slow as possible.

Advice over, especially since I’m “not qualified” to give advice, and will have to have a disclaimer whenever I finally am.

Tim