Mouse
|
XLE
|
-0.83%
|
|
Rabbit
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
DY
|
10/30/2015
|
13.97%
|
233
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
-0.24%
|
209
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
2.79%
|
186
|
ORA
|
3/14/2016
|
4.42%
|
97
|
AMWD
|
4/27/2016
|
-15.06%
|
53
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
2.41%
|
38
|
LEG
|
5/17/2016
|
2.69%
|
33
|
AVB
|
5/24/2016
|
-3.72%
|
26
|
AEM
|
6/7/2016
|
-0.08%
|
12
|
AMED
|
6/16/2016
|
-4.53%
|
3
|
Turtle
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-17.33%
|
313
|
DY
|
10/30/2015
|
13.97%
|
233
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
-0.24%
|
209
|
UPLMQ
|
12/1/2015
|
-61.35%
|
201
|
OKE
|
1/20/2016
|
128.98%
|
151
|
CMP
|
2/19/2016
|
16.43%
|
121
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
7.12%
|
118
|
ENOC
|
3/15/2016
|
-8.74%
|
96
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
-6.19%
|
94
|
ESRX
|
6/13/2016
|
-1.75%
|
6
|
Since
5/31/2011
|
Annualized
|
||
S&P
|
53.97%
|
8.91%
|
|
Mouse
|
123.46%
|
17.24%
|
|
Rabbit
|
56.90%
|
9.32%
|
|
Turtle
|
85.26%
|
12.98%
|
|
Previous
|
YTD
|
||
S&P
|
51.94%
|
1.33%
|
|
Mouse
|
77.79%
|
25.69%
|
|
Rabbit
|
57.21%
|
-0.20%
|
|
Turtle
|
58.35%
|
16.99%
|
The Mouse continues to outpace the full models, but the
Turtle is showing surprising recovery this year. Still not the performance I want, but weeding
out the corrupted database has revealed a set of initial conditions that work
well with the model on a long term hold:
The model is targeting small companies with poor current
earnings, a low P/E, and low Dividends – with good long term prospects for
earnings growth in the next 3-5 years.
The target holding period is now longer than a year, which makes the
model infinitely scalable and usable in a taxable account.
In other words, the Turtle is the goal for these
experiments, and the corrected dataset is working quite well.
There is another element involved, which is NOT included in
the reported scores: my actual returns for UPL are +75% instead of -61%,
because I load up on stocks when they contract and peel off profits when they
expand. That would be impossible for
anyone to follow on a blog.
But that leaves the last aspect of the Turtle which makes it
perfect for a public model: long term holding periods and infrequent trading
make following such a model extremely easy.
The Mouse is fun. The
Rabbit is disappointing. The Turtle is
the goal I’ve been striving for all this time, and like the Tortoise in the
fable it is showing its strength.
As for the broad market, we are still in a defensive market:
And, as always, I don’t use this to time. The Mouse is behaving perfectly normally:
In raw numbers, these are the last few years’ returns in the
Mouse:
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
Total
|
S&P
|
29.60%
|
11.39%
|
-0.73%
|
1.33%
|
45.23%
|
Sector
|
42.36%
|
36.12%
|
-27.55%
|
24.83%
|
75.25%
|
Last year was a disaster, but an expected one. After 2013 and 2014 it had to mean revert,
and it did. No model goes straight
up. The goal is to outperform in
multi-year periods.
In stocks, the long game is the only game.
Tim
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