|
Sector Model
|
XLI
|
1.45%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-43.55%
|
900
|
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
51.62%
|
796
|
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
112.80%
|
773
|
|
CMP
|
2/19/2016
|
16.61%
|
708
|
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
121.76%
|
705
|
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
93.71%
|
681
|
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
-0.56%
|
625
|
|
AEM
|
6/7/2016
|
-5.81%
|
599
|
|
ESRX
|
6/13/2016
|
-0.90%
|
593
|
|
AMED
|
6/16/2016
|
6.77%
|
590
|
|
FRO
|
6/27/2016
|
-34.05%
|
579
|
|
ASTE
|
7/12/2016
|
5.58%
|
564
|
|
MFC
|
9/1/2016
|
59.11%
|
513
|
|
SFM
|
9/8/2016
|
26.58%
|
506
|
|
CFFN
|
9/12/2016
|
2.53%
|
502
|
|
FOSL
|
5/11/2017
|
-40.10%
|
261
|
|
HIBB
|
7/25/2017
|
63.74%
|
186
|
|
FOSL
|
7/27/2017
|
-21.65%
|
184
|
|
HZO
|
8/1/2017
|
30.64%
|
179
|
|
CMPR
|
12/27/2017
|
1.43%
|
31
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
12.02%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
17.26%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
14.87%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
113.04%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
188.85%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
151.83%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
5.24%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
2.85%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2018
|
||
|
S&P
|
98.38%
|
7.39%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
172.95%
|
5.82%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
145.63%
|
2.52%
|
Both models are lagging the S&P for the year. So far the economic expectations I discussed
in the 11/13/2016 note are holding.
Taxes and regulations are down, but now we are beginning the trade wars
with the first shot going after solar and laundry machines. The weakening dollar makes actual returns
(versus nominal returns) for 2017 somewhat below the mean, rather than above.
The Fed is holding to its forecast of pulling out of the QE
balance sheet, but momentum is holding. Since
I don’t time it doesn’t much matter on my own methodology.
On an interesting note, BT, which has languished near the
bottom of the fundamental parameters for a couple of years now, has finally
crept back near the top. CMPR and NVR
are in the best positions. And FOSL is
dead last.
Tim
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