|
Sector Model
|
XLP
|
-0.05%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-48.23%
|
929
|
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
45.64%
|
825
|
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
80.79%
|
802
|
|
CMP
|
2/19/2016
|
-2.29%
|
737
|
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
88.41%
|
734
|
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
98.39%
|
710
|
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
-0.58%
|
654
|
|
AEM
|
6/7/2016
|
-18.24%
|
628
|
|
ESRX
|
6/13/2016
|
1.44%
|
622
|
|
AMED
|
6/16/2016
|
15.09%
|
619
|
|
FRO
|
6/27/2016
|
-39.40%
|
608
|
|
ASTE
|
7/12/2016
|
7.19%
|
593
|
|
MFC
|
9/1/2016
|
50.20%
|
542
|
|
SFM
|
9/8/2016
|
27.49%
|
535
|
|
CFFN
|
9/12/2016
|
-0.97%
|
531
|
|
FOSL
|
5/11/2017
|
-5.26%
|
290
|
|
HIBB
|
7/25/2017
|
92.75%
|
215
|
|
FOSL
|
7/27/2017
|
23.91%
|
213
|
|
HZO
|
8/1/2017
|
40.74%
|
208
|
|
CMPR
|
12/27/2017
|
40.40%
|
60
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
11.17%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
15.78%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
15.11%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
104.21%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
168.47%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
158.24%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
4.60%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
3.94%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2018
|
||
|
S&P
|
98.38%
|
2.94%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
172.95%
|
-1.64%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
145.63%
|
5.13%
|
Is the economy good, or bad?
Are tax rates low enough, or high enough?
Is spending too much, or not enough?
The political ramifications of a stock trade has to do with the time period you plan to hold.
Short term, higher spending and lower taxes tends to inflate stocks and suppress bonds, because at some point it will:
1) devalue the currency, and then
Are tax rates low enough, or high enough?
Is spending too much, or not enough?
The political ramifications of a stock trade has to do with the time period you plan to hold.
Short term, higher spending and lower taxes tends to inflate stocks and suppress bonds, because at some point it will:
1) devalue the currency, and then
2) create inflation
During the first stage of currency devaluation (which we are in now), stocks and real estate will rise.
During the second stage, of inflation, stocks will stall and real estate will continue to rise.
Keep in mind that we have elected a real estate mogul. The economic strategy he has will tend to favor what he knows. That doesn’t have to be conscious. It’s merely what anyone would do: we tend to favor ideas that have worked FOR US in the past, assuming that what’s good for us will be good for everyone.
Tim
During the first stage of currency devaluation (which we are in now), stocks and real estate will rise.
During the second stage, of inflation, stocks will stall and real estate will continue to rise.
Keep in mind that we have elected a real estate mogul. The economic strategy he has will tend to favor what he knows. That doesn’t have to be conscious. It’s merely what anyone would do: we tend to favor ideas that have worked FOR US in the past, assuming that what’s good for us will be good for everyone.
Tim
