|
Sector Model
|
XLI
|
-1.54%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-54.97%
|
1048
|
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
41.42%
|
944
|
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
80.90%
|
921
|
|
CMP
|
2/19/2016
|
5.02%
|
856
|
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
88.53%
|
853
|
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
37.02%
|
829
|
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
-4.77%
|
773
|
|
AEM
|
6/7/2016
|
-9.12%
|
747
|
|
ESRX
|
6/13/2016
|
4.37%
|
741
|
|
AMED
|
6/16/2016
|
72.49%
|
738
|
|
FRO
|
6/27/2016
|
-10.38%
|
727
|
|
ASTE
|
7/12/2016
|
4.10%
|
712
|
|
MFC
|
9/1/2016
|
49.03%
|
661
|
|
SFM
|
9/8/2016
|
14.02%
|
654
|
|
CFFN
|
9/12/2016
|
7.15%
|
650
|
|
FOSL
|
5/11/2017
|
114.68%
|
409
|
|
HIBB
|
7/25/2017
|
75.57%
|
334
|
|
FOSL
|
7/27/2017
|
180.80%
|
332
|
|
HZO
|
8/1/2017
|
48.82%
|
327
|
|
BCE
|
5/31/2018
|
4.15%
|
24
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
10.74%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
14.85%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
16.52%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
105.59%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
166.00%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
194.52%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
4.11%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
5.78%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2018
|
||
|
S&P
|
98.38%
|
3.63%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
172.95%
|
-0.55%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
145.63%
|
19.90%
|
A word on trade wars and zero-sum economics.
Trade wars are like sleight of hand tricks. Here’s how they work:
1)
Announce an industry you are going to “save”.
2)
Charge Americans extra tax when they try to buy
from foreign competitors of that business.
3)
Show how much you helped that industry.
What’s wrong with that?
Here’s what’s wrong – while you are busy watching that
industry you are distracted from all the other industries, jobs, and consumers
who are being hurt.
Take steel. Make it more expensive and you might help the
steel manufacturers, but you hurt the car makers and consumers. Worse, the less money consumers have after
buying a car that they need, the less they will have left over for other
purchases that are discretionary. So
anything from amusement parks to restaurants will get hurt as well. But you can’t make the direct connection intuitively,
and you won’t be paying attention to how restaurants fare while everyone is
shouting “Look at the steel makers!”
And that’s just a tariff YOU create. What about retaliatory tariffs?
Ultimately if America walls itself off from trade, the rest
of the world will just trade around us – and leave us in the dust.
But a few steel makers will sure be on hand to sing the
praises of those tariffs.
This is like a magician who waves his hand around an empty
palm while he snatches the wallet from your pocket.
Tariffs, ultimately, don’t work. Oh, they might seem to work for the one
industry everyone is watching. But it is
at the expense of everyone else.
Tim
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