|
Sector Model
|
XLI
|
-0.08%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-54.10%
|
1069
|
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
41.28%
|
965
|
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
87.06%
|
942
|
|
CMP
|
2/19/2016
|
5.42%
|
877
|
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
94.94%
|
874
|
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
34.16%
|
850
|
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
-2.70%
|
794
|
|
AEM
|
6/7/2016
|
-7.76%
|
768
|
|
ESRX
|
6/13/2016
|
7.34%
|
762
|
|
AMED
|
6/16/2016
|
86.56%
|
759
|
|
FRO
|
6/27/2016
|
-25.88%
|
748
|
|
ASTE
|
7/12/2016
|
6.01%
|
733
|
|
MFC
|
9/1/2016
|
41.55%
|
682
|
|
SFM
|
9/8/2016
|
13.26%
|
675
|
|
CFFN
|
9/12/2016
|
2.40%
|
671
|
|
FOSL
|
5/11/2017
|
76.66%
|
430
|
|
HIBB
|
7/25/2017
|
78.24%
|
355
|
|
FOSL
|
7/27/2017
|
131.07%
|
353
|
|
HZO
|
8/1/2017
|
39.73%
|
348
|
|
BCE
|
5/31/2018
|
8.05%
|
45
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
10.82%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
13.49%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
15.68%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
107.84%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
146.37%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
182.23%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
2.68%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
4.86%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2018
|
||
|
S&P
|
98.38%
|
4.77%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
172.95%
|
-2.39%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
145.63%
|
14.90%
|
Lots of motion sickness in the market. Given the five year holding period for each
stock on the model, so far it’s mostly noise.
The industries in the buy-zone, however, tell a bleak
picture:
|
ADVERT
|
|
ENGCON
|
|
FUNL SVC
|
|
FURNITUR
|
|
GROCERY
|
|
HLTHSYS
|
|
NWSPAPER
|
|
REINSUR
|
|
TELEQUIP
|
|
TELUTIL
|
|
WATER
|
Nothing exciting? It
gets worse: the most interesting stock I would buy today (if I were due for a
rotation), is AWK, American Water Works.
When the best stock in the universe appears to be a water
company, we aren’t looking at good times ahead.
Tim
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