Wednesday, August 22, 2018
8/22/2018 Sector Trade
The Sector Model sold XLE and bought XLP with a 1.2% favorable gap (i.e. XLE up .8% and XLP down .4%).
Sunday, August 19, 2018
8/19/2018 Numbers
|
Sector Model
|
XLE
|
-0.12%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-52.74%
|
1104
|
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
49.32%
|
1000
|
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
58.42%
|
977
|
|
CMP
|
2/19/2016
|
-2.69%
|
912
|
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
65.10%
|
909
|
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
21.95%
|
885
|
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
2.45%
|
829
|
|
AEM
|
6/7/2016
|
-27.94%
|
803
|
|
ESRX
|
6/13/2016
|
15.12%
|
797
|
|
AMED
|
6/16/2016
|
136.80%
|
794
|
|
FRO
|
6/27/2016
|
-27.85%
|
783
|
|
ASTE
|
7/12/2016
|
-19.22%
|
768
|
|
MFC
|
9/1/2016
|
48.48%
|
717
|
|
SFM
|
9/8/2016
|
23.17%
|
710
|
|
CFFN
|
9/12/2016
|
6.65%
|
706
|
|
FOSL
|
5/11/2017
|
71.54%
|
465
|
|
HIBB
|
7/25/2017
|
101.53%
|
390
|
|
FOSL
|
7/27/2017
|
124.37%
|
388
|
|
HZO
|
8/1/2017
|
36.03%
|
383
|
|
BCE
|
5/31/2018
|
-1.12%
|
80
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
10.96%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
13.74%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
15.18%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
111.91%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
153.30%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
177.40%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
2.78%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
4.22%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2018
|
||
|
S&P
|
98.38%
|
6.82%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
172.95%
|
-0.67%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
145.63%
|
12.93%
|
Thursday, August 16, 2018
8/16/2018 Potential Sector Trade
Unless there is a negative gap, the Sector Model will sell XLP and buy XLE tomorrow.
*NOTE a gap is caused by the difference between the selling position and the buying position. If the selling position is up more (or down less) then that is a positive gap.
*NOTE a gap is caused by the difference between the selling position and the buying position. If the selling position is up more (or down less) then that is a positive gap.
Sunday, August 12, 2018
8/12/2018 Holding
|
Sector Model
|
XLP
|
0.78%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-52.94%
|
1097
|
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
46.66%
|
993
|
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
64.19%
|
970
|
|
CMP
|
2/19/2016
|
0.73%
|
905
|
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
71.11%
|
902
|
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
23.04%
|
878
|
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
-0.95%
|
822
|
|
AEM
|
6/7/2016
|
-19.01%
|
796
|
|
ESRX
|
6/13/2016
|
10.18%
|
790
|
|
AMED
|
6/16/2016
|
126.16%
|
787
|
|
FRO
|
6/27/2016
|
-29.96%
|
776
|
|
ASTE
|
7/12/2016
|
-20.05%
|
761
|
|
MFC
|
9/1/2016
|
44.05%
|
710
|
|
SFM
|
9/8/2016
|
20.38%
|
703
|
|
CFFN
|
9/12/2016
|
4.82%
|
699
|
|
FOSL
|
5/11/2017
|
61.43%
|
458
|
|
HIBB
|
7/25/2017
|
85.11%
|
383
|
|
FOSL
|
7/27/2017
|
111.14%
|
381
|
|
HZO
|
8/1/2017
|
28.96%
|
376
|
|
BCE
|
5/31/2018
|
3.17%
|
73
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
10.89%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
13.30%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
14.82%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
110.50%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
145.67%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
170.48%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
2.41%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
3.93%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2018
|
||
|
S&P
|
98.38%
|
6.11%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
172.95%
|
-2.92%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
145.63%
|
10.12%
|
FOSL was in free fall this week, harshly reducing my gains. It’s doubly painful since I have two
positions in it.
As for timing, I’m not due for another stock trade on the
Full Model until September. And even
then I’d need a fresh buy. The most
favored stock on my watchlist remains AWK in the Water industry (which is
spectacularly unexciting for the market as a whole).
And if I were to trade today I’d take profits on AMED.
But I’m not trading today.
As for the Sector Model, XLP is close to flipping, so I may
have a trade as early as this week.
Tim
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