12/17/2013 Information Sharing on DIAC Diapulse

Seeking other disfranchised investors of DIAC Diapulse corporation for information sharing.

Please email me at teclontz@teclontz.com if you have invested in this stock.

12/14/2013 the lump of coal hits Argentina

Sector Model	XLU	-0.16%
Large Portfolio	Date	Return	Days
ABX	4/11/2013	-30.45%	247
NEM	9/30/2013	-16.11%	75
BCR	10/4/2013	16.45%	71
ED	10/18/2013	-3.24%	57
ISRG	10/21/2013	-3.61%	54
EW	10/28/2013	-20.27%	47
ARLP	11/11/2013	0.67%	33
JOY	11/18/2013	-5.44%	26
OXY	11/27/2013	-6.03%	17
OUTR	12/2/2013	0.47%	12
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	11.54%
Sector Model	Annualized	22.74%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	27.88%

 

Rotation: selling OUTR; buying FFIV (again).

A bit of churning while the model goes nowhere.  Although technically 0.47% in 12 days is equivalent to an annualized rate of 15.27%, it’s hardly anything to brag about.

Meanwhile, after unloading FFIV a few weeks ago, that stock went down about 1% and stopped.

1% is hardly a buyable dip.

A very unexciting time.

In the news, ABX is closing down an unprofitable Argentinian mine and laying off almost a third of their total workforce (which corresponds to the third I’ve lost in it so far).  I’m no expert on how this layoff will affect the stock, but my guess is this may stop the bleeding.

And that’s a sour point to me.  I like fundamental investing over technical trading because I usually profit when a business (and employees) succeed together.  I want to win when others win.  I don’t want to recover when others get laid off just before Christmas.

I hope they can find other work and that their families will be okay.

As far as the broad market is concerned, the sector model’s move to XLU is hardly bullish.  And the money-flow into XLU is unusually strong for the model.

Something negative is afoot.

That lump of coal I looked at last week keeps peeking out of its stocking.

Tim

 

 

 

12/11/2013 sector update

Massive money-flow changes today.

The sector model is switching to XLU into the close.

12/11/2013 premarket

Just after the close the sector model showed XLB in the lead.

If XLB gaps down relative to XLK this morning, I'll make the trade. 

12/8/2013 JOY to the world

Sector Model	XLK	0.09%
Large Portfolio	Date	Return	Days
ABX	4/11/2013	-36.02%	240
NEM	9/30/2013	-17.05%	68
BCR	10/4/2013	19.79%	64
ED	10/18/2013	-0.53%	50
ISRG	10/21/2013	0.23%	47
EW	10/28/2013	-13.98%	40
ARLP	11/11/2013	0.95%	26
JOY	11/18/2013	-1.11%	19
OXY	11/27/2013	-4.45%	10
OUTR	12/2/2013	-4.68%	5
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	12.37%
Sector Model	Annualized	23.73%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	28.68%

 

No rotation today.

On Friday the sector model flipped to XLK.

Congress is trying to create another self-imposed government disaster.  The President is doubling down on his.  The week is uncertain, at best.

An “ideal” stock selection tells us a little, though.  If the model were to pick ten today, 30% of them would be in utilities:

JOY	COAL
SWM	TOBACCO
SRE	UTILWEST
WPO	NWSPAPER
PPL	UTILEAST
MHK	FURNITUR
BCR	MEDICINV
NSP	HUMAN
ROVI	ENTTECH
MGEE	UTILCENT

 

The best ranked stock of all is JOY – in the coal industry.

Granted, it SHOULD be time for that Santa Claus rally.  But we might get a lump of coal.

JOY to the world…

Tim

 

 

12/06/2013 Sector update

The sector model sold XLB and bought XLK before the close.

11/30/2013 Be prepared for a "scare market"

Sector Model	XLB	1.14%
Large Portfolio	Date	Return	Days
ABX	4/11/2013	-31.49%	233
QCOM	9/3/2013	11.54%	88
NEM	9/30/2013	-11.26%	61
BCR	10/4/2013	21.05%	57
ED	10/18/2013	-1.67%	43
ISRG	10/21/2013	0.10%	40
EW	10/28/2013	-14.96%	33
ARLP	11/11/2013	-2.12%	19
JOY	11/18/2013	-0.41%	12
OXY	11/27/2013	-2.73%	3
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	12.49%
Sector Model	Annualized	24.01%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	29.64%

 

Rotation: selling QCOM; buying OUTR (again).

QCOM currently has a return rate of 57.32%, so it’s in a good spot to take profits.

OUTR only netted a few dollars last time, but it might be better positioned now.  We’ll see.  In the meantime, my two gold stocks continue to flounder.

As for the broad market… eh.  People are talking it up and down, and I’m thankful that I don’t have to factor any estimates of the market’s direction before I pick a stock.  That said, we are overdue for a correction, but not due for a bear market, and we should be 5-10% higher by this time next year.  The taper, if it comes, might slow down the advance, but not reverse it.

The key here is that tapering is not tightening.  The wild card, however, is the estimate that people have.  No one pays for a stock based on what they think it is currently worth.  Instead, they invest based on what they think the stock will be worth in the future.  The same goes for the broad market estimates.  So then, while a taper is indeed not in itself the same thing as “tightening,” it IS a signal that tightening is more possible than it was before the taper.

As we’ve seen in previous demographic estimates, the market would be worth less than 1000 if there had been no QE, and even though we are due for a bull market NOW, that bull market would have begun at a much lower level than now.

With continued QE, the market should go up.

With tapering, the market should go up.

The market should only go down if QE is reversed.  Reversal should not happen before 2024.  If the market THINKS it is going to happen before then, we could see – not a bear market – but rather a “scare market.”  A scare market would look like 1987 – a sharp drop followed by a continued advance, causing market timers to suffer in both directions.  It will depend in large part on how believable and clear Yellen is that there will be no tightening before 2024.  I don’t think she’s considered that far, however, so a scare market is more likely than an uneventful advance.

Write down your plan ahead of time.

Stick with it.

Tim