12/14/2013 the lump of coal hits Argentina

Sector Model	XLU	-0.16%
Large Portfolio	Date	Return	Days
ABX	4/11/2013	-30.45%	247
NEM	9/30/2013	-16.11%	75
BCR	10/4/2013	16.45%	71
ED	10/18/2013	-3.24%	57
ISRG	10/21/2013	-3.61%	54
EW	10/28/2013	-20.27%	47
ARLP	11/11/2013	0.67%	33
JOY	11/18/2013	-5.44%	26
OXY	11/27/2013	-6.03%	17
OUTR	12/2/2013	0.47%	12
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	11.54%
Sector Model	Annualized	22.74%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	27.88%

 

Rotation: selling OUTR; buying FFIV (again).

A bit of churning while the model goes nowhere.  Although technically 0.47% in 12 days is equivalent to an annualized rate of 15.27%, it’s hardly anything to brag about.

Meanwhile, after unloading FFIV a few weeks ago, that stock went down about 1% and stopped.

1% is hardly a buyable dip.

A very unexciting time.

In the news, ABX is closing down an unprofitable Argentinian mine and laying off almost a third of their total workforce (which corresponds to the third I’ve lost in it so far).  I’m no expert on how this layoff will affect the stock, but my guess is this may stop the bleeding.

And that’s a sour point to me.  I like fundamental investing over technical trading because I usually profit when a business (and employees) succeed together.  I want to win when others win.  I don’t want to recover when others get laid off just before Christmas.

I hope they can find other work and that their families will be okay.

As far as the broad market is concerned, the sector model’s move to XLU is hardly bullish.  And the money-flow into XLU is unusually strong for the model.

Something negative is afoot.

That lump of coal I looked at last week keeps peeking out of its stocking.

Tim