|
Sector Model
|
XLB
|
0.00%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
ABX
|
4/11/2013
|
-31.12%
|
254
|
|
NEM
|
9/30/2013
|
-18.41%
|
82
|
|
BCR
|
10/4/2013
|
15.18%
|
78
|
|
ED
|
10/18/2013
|
-2.46%
|
64
|
|
ISRG
|
10/21/2013
|
-3.23%
|
61
|
|
EW
|
10/28/2013
|
-15.40%
|
54
|
|
ARLP
|
11/11/2013
|
1.52%
|
40
|
|
JOY
|
11/18/2013
|
-3.82%
|
33
|
|
OXY
|
11/27/2013
|
-4.29%
|
24
|
|
FFIV
|
12/16/2013
|
8.14%
|
5
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
12.49%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
23.16%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
28.35%
|
Rotation: selling FFIV; buying MUR (Murphy Oil).
Those watching the sector model on the blog will have seen
most of the recent whipsawing (you were spared the intraday whipsawing).
We can thank the Fed for the confusion. Now that everyone has figured out that the previous
level of QE was bullish, they have no idea how to calculate the taper.
So, XLU was the bearish play and XLB the bullish one.
XLB is only ahead by a hair, and I’m expecting more
whipsawing in the near future.
To those hoping for a Santa Claus rally – aren’t we at all-time
highs? What else would you want?
And, being at all-time highs, it’s quite obvious that value
stocks have been left in the dust.
Seasonally, the Santa Claus rally / January effect is a
small value phenomenon. So, THAT’s what
I want – to catch up to the index funds!
I may have to wait a bit longer, though. The style model is showing small blend in the
buy zone, rather than small value.
Whatever happens this week, I don’t expect the full impact on my own
model until January.
For those traveling this week – be safe and enjoy your
family.
Tim
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