Tuesday, December 17, 2013

12/17/2013 Information Sharing on DIAC Diapulse

Seeking other disfranchised investors of DIAC Diapulse corporation for information sharing.

Please email me at teclontz@teclontz.com if you have invested in this stock.

Saturday, December 14, 2013

12/14/2013 the lump of coal hits Argentina


Sector Model
XLU
-0.16%
Large Portfolio
Date
Return
Days
ABX
4/11/2013
-30.45%
247
NEM
9/30/2013
-16.11%
75
BCR
10/4/2013
16.45%
71
ED
10/18/2013
-3.24%
57
ISRG
10/21/2013
-3.61%
54
EW
10/28/2013
-20.27%
47
ARLP
11/11/2013
0.67%
33
JOY
11/18/2013
-5.44%
26
OXY
11/27/2013
-6.03%
17
OUTR
12/2/2013
0.47%
12
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
11.54%
Sector Model
Annualized
22.74%
Large Portfolio
Annualized
27.88%

 

Rotation: selling OUTR; buying FFIV (again).

A bit of churning while the model goes nowhere.  Although technically 0.47% in 12 days is equivalent to an annualized rate of 15.27%, it’s hardly anything to brag about.

Meanwhile, after unloading FFIV a few weeks ago, that stock went down about 1% and stopped.

1% is hardly a buyable dip.

A very unexciting time.

In the news, ABX is closing down an unprofitable Argentinian mine and laying off almost a third of their total workforce (which corresponds to the third I’ve lost in it so far).  I’m no expert on how this layoff will affect the stock, but my guess is this may stop the bleeding.

And that’s a sour point to me.  I like fundamental investing over technical trading because I usually profit when a business (and employees) succeed together.  I want to win when others win.  I don’t want to recover when others get laid off just before Christmas.

I hope they can find other work and that their families will be okay.

As far as the broad market is concerned, the sector model’s move to XLU is hardly bullish.  And the money-flow into XLU is unusually strong for the model.

Something negative is afoot.

That lump of coal I looked at last week keeps peeking out of its stocking.

Tim

 

 

 

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

12/11/2013 sector update

Massive money-flow changes today.

The sector model is switching to XLU into the close.

12/11/2013 premarket

Just after the close the sector model showed XLB in the lead.

If XLB gaps down relative to XLK this morning, I'll make the trade. 

Sunday, December 8, 2013

12/8/2013 JOY to the world

Sector Model
XLK
0.09%
Large Portfolio
Date
Return
Days
ABX
4/11/2013
-36.02%
240
NEM
9/30/2013
-17.05%
68
BCR
10/4/2013
19.79%
64
ED
10/18/2013
-0.53%
50
ISRG
10/21/2013
0.23%
47
EW
10/28/2013
-13.98%
40
ARLP
11/11/2013
0.95%
26
JOY
11/18/2013
-1.11%
19
OXY
11/27/2013
-4.45%
10
OUTR
12/2/2013
-4.68%
5
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
12.37%
Sector Model
Annualized
23.73%
Large Portfolio
Annualized
28.68%
 
No rotation today.
On Friday the sector model flipped to XLK.
Congress is trying to create another self-imposed government disaster.  The President is doubling down on his.  The week is uncertain, at best.
An “ideal” stock selection tells us a little, though.  If the model were to pick ten today, 30% of them would be in utilities:
JOY
COAL
SWM
TOBACCO
SRE
UTILWEST
WPO
NWSPAPER
PPL
UTILEAST
MHK
FURNITUR
BCR
MEDICINV
NSP
HUMAN
ROVI
ENTTECH
MGEE
UTILCENT
 
The best ranked stock of all is JOY – in the coal industry.
Granted, it SHOULD be time for that Santa Claus rally.  But we might get a lump of coal.
JOY to the world…
Tim
 
 

Friday, December 6, 2013