XLB is replacing XLU into the close.
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
12/17/2013 Information Sharing on DIAC Diapulse
Seeking other disfranchised investors of DIAC Diapulse corporation for information sharing.
Please email me at teclontz@teclontz.com if you have invested in this stock.
Please email me at teclontz
Saturday, December 14, 2013
12/14/2013 the lump of coal hits Argentina
|
Sector Model
|
XLU
|
-0.16%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
ABX
|
4/11/2013
|
-30.45%
|
247
|
|
NEM
|
9/30/2013
|
-16.11%
|
75
|
|
BCR
|
10/4/2013
|
16.45%
|
71
|
|
ED
|
10/18/2013
|
-3.24%
|
57
|
|
ISRG
|
10/21/2013
|
-3.61%
|
54
|
|
EW
|
10/28/2013
|
-20.27%
|
47
|
|
ARLP
|
11/11/2013
|
0.67%
|
33
|
|
JOY
|
11/18/2013
|
-5.44%
|
26
|
|
OXY
|
11/27/2013
|
-6.03%
|
17
|
|
OUTR
|
12/2/2013
|
0.47%
|
12
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
11.54%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
22.74%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
27.88%
|
Rotation: selling OUTR; buying FFIV (again).
A bit of churning while the model goes nowhere. Although technically 0.47% in 12 days is
equivalent to an annualized rate of 15.27%, it’s hardly anything to brag about.
Meanwhile, after unloading FFIV a few weeks ago, that stock
went down about 1% and stopped.
1% is hardly a buyable dip.
A very unexciting time.
In the news, ABX is closing down an unprofitable Argentinian mine and
laying off almost a third of their total workforce (which corresponds to the
third I’ve lost in it so far). I’m no
expert on how this layoff will affect the stock, but my guess is this may stop
the bleeding.
And that’s a sour point to me. I like fundamental investing over technical
trading because I usually profit when a business (and employees) succeed
together. I want to win when others
win. I don’t want to recover when others
get laid off just before Christmas.
I hope they can find other work and that their families will
be okay.
As far as the broad market is concerned, the sector model’s
move to XLU is hardly bullish. And the money-flow
into XLU is unusually strong for the model.
Something negative is afoot.
That lump of coal I looked at last week keeps peeking out of
its stocking.
Tim
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
12/11/2013 sector update
Massive money-flow changes today.
The sector model is switching to XLU into the close.
The sector model is switching to XLU into the close.
12/11/2013 premarket
Just after the close the sector model showed XLB in the lead.
If XLB gaps down relative to XLK this morning, I'll make the trade.
If XLB gaps down relative to XLK this morning, I'll make the trade.
Sunday, December 8, 2013
12/8/2013 JOY to the world
|
Sector Model
|
XLK
|
0.09%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
ABX
|
4/11/2013
|
-36.02%
|
240
|
|
NEM
|
9/30/2013
|
-17.05%
|
68
|
|
BCR
|
10/4/2013
|
19.79%
|
64
|
|
ED
|
10/18/2013
|
-0.53%
|
50
|
|
ISRG
|
10/21/2013
|
0.23%
|
47
|
|
EW
|
10/28/2013
|
-13.98%
|
40
|
|
ARLP
|
11/11/2013
|
0.95%
|
26
|
|
JOY
|
11/18/2013
|
-1.11%
|
19
|
|
OXY
|
11/27/2013
|
-4.45%
|
10
|
|
OUTR
|
12/2/2013
|
-4.68%
|
5
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
12.37%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
23.73%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
28.68%
|
No rotation today.
On Friday the sector model flipped to XLK.
Congress is trying to create another self-imposed government
disaster. The President is doubling down
on his. The week is uncertain, at best.
An “ideal” stock selection tells us a little, though. If the model were to pick ten today, 30% of
them would be in utilities:
|
JOY
|
COAL
|
|
SWM
|
TOBACCO
|
|
SRE
|
UTILWEST
|
|
WPO
|
NWSPAPER
|
|
PPL
|
UTILEAST
|
|
MHK
|
FURNITUR
|
|
BCR
|
MEDICINV
|
|
NSP
|
HUMAN
|
|
ROVI
|
ENTTECH
|
|
MGEE
|
UTILCENT
|
The best ranked stock of all is JOY – in the coal industry.
Granted, it SHOULD be time for that Santa Claus rally. But we might get a lump of coal.
JOY to the world…
Tim
Friday, December 6, 2013
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