|
Sector Model
|
XLU
|
36.82%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
BBRY
|
7/16/2012
|
82.76%
|
227
|
|
SEAC
|
9/25/2012
|
39.29%
|
156
|
|
CAJ
|
9/25/2012
|
3.69%
|
156
|
|
CFI
|
10/31/2012
|
37.53%
|
120
|
|
RE
|
11/26/2012
|
19.46%
|
94
|
|
NSC
|
1/28/2013
|
5.06%
|
31
|
|
BOKF
|
2/4/2013
|
4.92%
|
24
|
|
SWM
|
2/12/2013
|
1.61%
|
16
|
|
GMCR
|
2/19/2013
|
5.38%
|
9
|
|
OKE
|
2/25/2013
|
-4.79%
|
3
|
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
6.91%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
19.63%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
30.44%
|
No rotation. Just a
timing note.
A lot of folks got excited when the market took a dive. Timers piled on short.
Then Bernanke spoke.
Timers hate Bernanke.
So where ARE we?
Well, strictly speaking, I don’t time the market. But I do measure the sectors and
industries. In my note on Sunday I said
that if I were hedging I’d be about 60% long and 40% short.
After the whipsawing this week I got curious and reran the
model. This morning it is showing an
ideal 70% long and 30% short portfolio.
Still not wildly long, but certainly not aggressively short either. Just a trifle more long than it was on
Sunday.
That said, the average true range of the VIX is growing
(i.e. the volatility of the volatility index is rising).
If I HAD to read the tea leaves, I’d GUESS (and all anyone
can do is guess nowadays) that the market will grow more volatile in a struggle
to break all-time highs on more indexes.
I understand the DOW made it there, but the S&P has a wee bit more
to go.
My timing expert friend, Len, is a bit more bearish in the
short term.
And we could BOTH be right, since he looks at shorter time
frames than I do. I measure the market
in months and he measures in weeks.
Perhaps more whipsawing. But I
wouldn’t get too excited either way. Not
yet. If you try to time, you’d better
have a darned good model and flexible stops.
For what it’s worth, these are the best long industries on my
model:
|
ELECFGN
|
|
ENTTECH
|
|
OILGAS
|
|
BANKMID
|
|
WIRELESS
|
|
FURNITUR
|
|
GROCERY
|
|
AUTO
|
|
NWSPAPER
|
|
GASDIVRS
|
|
REINSUR
|
|
GOLDSILV
|
|
EDUC
|
|
ADVERT
|
…and these are the best industries to short:
|
PROPMGT
|
|
BIOTECH
|
|
ITSERV
|
|
DIVERSIF
|
|
CABLETV
|
|
PIPEMLP
|
Fasten on to your seat belts. The sequester is nothing compared to the next
crisis due to hit at the end of March.
Tim
No comments:
Post a Comment