03/10/2013 Nothing -- Yet

Sector Model	XLI	1.90%
Large Portfolio	Date	Return	Days
BBRY	7/16/2012	80.14%	237
SEAC	9/25/2012	36.96%	166
CAJ	9/25/2012	3.87%	166
CFI	10/31/2012	51.39%	130
RE	11/26/2012	22.71%	104
BOKF	2/4/2013	7.81%	34
SWM	2/12/2013	4.95%	26
GMCR	2/19/2013	19.10%	19
OKE	2/25/2013	-4.58%	13
TTM	3/4/2013	5.80%	6
S&P	Annualized	8.35%
Sector Model	Annualized	26.59%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	32.82%

 

Full stop – no rotation for Monday.

As I noted on Friday’s post, the sector model has been in transition this week, and ended with a position in XLI.

Thanks to a request from one of the readers, I’ve changed the reporting on the sector model to only include the profits in the latest call, which is 1.9%.

There are some other changes that aren’t visible yet, but soon will be:

I’ve personally transitioned to a hedged version of the model.  Although I won’t be reporting the hedged trades, there WILL be occasions that the “cash account” version of the model on the blog will be affected.  When the hedged version of the model reflects a bearish bias in the market, some (or possibly all) of the blog trades could end up in cash.

That actually should increase the performance of the model, by avoiding some of the more negative events of the market.  While no one can perfectly time the market, there are times when it is prudent to raise some cash.

Under the hood, then, this week has seen the hedged model move from a net 100% long bias, to a net 60% long bias.  That’s still bullish, but not quite as bullish as it was just a week ago.  The positive thrusts of the market lately are not being supported by breadth and money-flow.  It’s like a moving car when you lift up on the accelerator.  You still have forward momentum, but the car itself will eventually decelerate.

No changes are visible on the blog… YET.  But caution is warranted.  If you’re someone who uses margin, you may want to review your trades and make sure you’re comfortable with a market that may find itself slowing during the next few months.

In particular, retail and recreation stocks are most likely to slow first, which indicates a hit on parts of the economy that people “want” instead of what they “need.”

Tim