|
Sector Model
|
XLB
|
0.70%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
BBRY
|
7/16/2012
|
88.14%
|
272
|
|
SEAC
|
9/25/2012
|
31.09%
|
201
|
|
CAJ
|
9/25/2012
|
7.15%
|
201
|
|
BOKF
|
2/4/2013
|
10.40%
|
69
|
|
SWM
|
2/12/2013
|
9.54%
|
61
|
|
GMCR
|
2/19/2013
|
29.40%
|
54
|
|
OKE
|
2/25/2013
|
4.20%
|
48
|
|
TTM
|
4/1/2013
|
3.32%
|
13
|
|
MWW
|
4/11/2013
|
-0.67%
|
3
|
|
ABX
|
4/11/2013
|
-7.52%
|
3
|
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
9.30%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
25.07%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
31.45%
|
No rotation tomorrow.
I continue to be amazed at the resilience of this market.
That has less to do with the market than my own bad
instincts. Everyone everywhere is
printing money. This is like the Weimar
republic on a global scale. Of course
prices are going up.
But what about the economy?
Well, now, that’s a different matter. You can’t print prosperity any more than you
can tax and spend it. Money is the
result, and not the cause. To start with
money is to put the cart before the horse.
What we have is a runaway cart.
The horse is stuck in the shed.
In a piece labeled “The Worst Four Years Of GDP Growth In History:
Yes, We Should Be Worried”, J.T. Young gives the following comparison of
average GDP growth:
1948-57: 3.80%
1958-67: 4.28%
1968-77: 3.18%
1978-87: 3.15%
1988-97: 3.05%
1998-2007: 2.99%
2008-2013: 0.73%
Obviously, this does not cover the entire “history” of GDP
growth, but those last five years should give us pause. The stock market has been on a tear and
company profits have been skyrocketing, while total employment has been stalled,
at best. Those profits are at the
expense of a reduced workforce.
Regardless of your views of industry efficiency and
automation, at some point people need to have a job.
This week I had a taste of it when I got my first ever case
of gout and was forced to miss three days of work.
Now, having a weekend is good. A vacation is even better. But in both of those cases you CAN go back to
work.
I couldn’t. I was
stuck, unable to walk, and bored out of my skull. After last week, T.G.I.M(onday)!
And no, no Buffett post this week. I’m still recuperating and looking forward to
another nap.
But I will say this: you can’t trade the news, and you can’t
trade the economy either.
This economy stinks, and it’s stunk for years now.
Trade good companies with bad press; not bad economies with
a good printing press.
Tim
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