12/30/2013 rotation

Sector Model	XLP	0.08%
Large Portfolio	Date	Return	Days
ABX	4/11/2013	-28.92%	263
NEM	9/30/2013	-17.37%	91
BCR	10/4/2013	16.48%	87
ED	10/18/2013	-1.64%	73
ISRG	10/21/2013	1.74%	70
EW	10/28/2013	-14.77%	63
ARLP	11/11/2013	2.91%	49
JOY	11/18/2013	2.44%	42
OXY	11/27/2013	-2.49%	33
MUR	12/23/2013	0.86%	7
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	12.92%
Sector Model	Annualized	23.16%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	29.10%

 

Rotation: selling BCR; buying SWM.

Hmm… selling something in a medical industry and buying a tobacco company.

Real vote of confidence for all those New Year’s resolutions.

Tim

 

12/30/2013 sector update

Whipsawing continues.  Sector model sold XLU and bought XLP.

12/28/2013 a quirk or two

Sector Model	XLU	0.00%
Large Portfolio	Date	Return	Days
ABX	4/11/2013	-27.46%	261
NEM	9/30/2013	-14.99%	89
BCR	10/4/2013	16.18%	85
ED	10/18/2013	-1.96%	71
ISRG	10/21/2013	0.92%	68
EW	10/28/2013	-14.34%	61
ARLP	11/11/2013	2.50%	47
JOY	11/18/2013	2.21%	40
OXY	11/27/2013	-2.18%	31
MUR	12/23/2013	1.31%	5
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	12.95%
Sector Model	Annualized	23.33%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	29.32%

 

XLU is in the lead only by a hair.  The extreme whipsawing between XLU and XLB actually has to do with the relative activity of XLP and XLF in the background.  A quirk of the model, but an essential quirk.

In another interesting quirk, of the stocks I hold, JOY is the selection on my sell criteria; while of the stocks I don’t hold – all 6500 of them – JOY is the selection on my buy criteria.

Now, THAT’s a whipsaw to end all whipsaws…

If my model was being run by an HFT machine, it would trade in circles a few billion times until all the money was eaten in trading costs.

The style model is still showing Small Blend to be the preferred target.  The full Santa Claus (aka January effect) rally is supposed to be in Small Value.  So we’re still not getting the normal action, and my own model is reflecting this with a 3.78% drawdown, even as the broad market is at all time highs.

JOY, our lump of coal, is still in the game, in spite of itself…

Tim

 

 

12/27/2013 sector update

The sector model sold XLB and bought XLU before the close.

12/26/2013 sector update

Some negative whipsawing going on today. 

The sector model sold XLU and bought XLB before the close.

12/23/2013 sector update

The whipsawing between XLB and XLU continues.  XLU is now favored after the close.

The process tomorrow is to trade into XLU on a favorable gap.  If there is no favorable gap, then I'll recalculate before the close.

12/22/2013 Who needs Santa Claus?

Sector Model	XLB	0.00%
Large Portfolio	Date	Return	Days
ABX	4/11/2013	-31.12%	254
NEM	9/30/2013	-18.41%	82
BCR	10/4/2013	15.18%	78
ED	10/18/2013	-2.46%	64
ISRG	10/21/2013	-3.23%	61
EW	10/28/2013	-15.40%	54
ARLP	11/11/2013	1.52%	40
JOY	11/18/2013	-3.82%	33
OXY	11/27/2013	-4.29%	24
FFIV	12/16/2013	8.14%	5
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	12.49%
Sector Model	Annualized	23.16%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	28.35%

 

Rotation: selling FFIV; buying MUR (Murphy Oil).

Those watching the sector model on the blog will have seen most of the recent whipsawing (you were spared the intraday whipsawing).

We can thank the Fed for the confusion.  Now that everyone has figured out that the previous level of QE was bullish, they have no idea how to calculate the taper.

So, XLU was the bearish play and XLB the bullish one.

XLB is only ahead by a hair, and I’m expecting more whipsawing in the near future.

To those hoping for a Santa Claus rally – aren’t we at all-time highs?  What else would you want?

And, being at all-time highs, it’s quite obvious that value stocks have been left in the dust.

Seasonally, the Santa Claus rally / January effect is a small value phenomenon.  So, THAT’s what I want – to catch up to the index funds!

I may have to wait a bit longer, though.  The style model is showing small blend in the buy zone, rather than small value.  Whatever happens this week, I don’t expect the full impact on my own model until January.

For those traveling this week – be safe and enjoy your family.

Tim

 

12/19/2013 sector update

XLB is replacing XLU into the close.

12/17/2013 Information Sharing on DIAC Diapulse

Seeking other disfranchised investors of DIAC Diapulse corporation for information sharing.

Please email me at teclontz@teclontz.com if you have invested in this stock.

12/14/2013 the lump of coal hits Argentina

Sector Model	XLU	-0.16%
Large Portfolio	Date	Return	Days
ABX	4/11/2013	-30.45%	247
NEM	9/30/2013	-16.11%	75
BCR	10/4/2013	16.45%	71
ED	10/18/2013	-3.24%	57
ISRG	10/21/2013	-3.61%	54
EW	10/28/2013	-20.27%	47
ARLP	11/11/2013	0.67%	33
JOY	11/18/2013	-5.44%	26
OXY	11/27/2013	-6.03%	17
OUTR	12/2/2013	0.47%	12
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	11.54%
Sector Model	Annualized	22.74%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	27.88%

 

Rotation: selling OUTR; buying FFIV (again).

A bit of churning while the model goes nowhere.  Although technically 0.47% in 12 days is equivalent to an annualized rate of 15.27%, it’s hardly anything to brag about.

Meanwhile, after unloading FFIV a few weeks ago, that stock went down about 1% and stopped.

1% is hardly a buyable dip.

A very unexciting time.

In the news, ABX is closing down an unprofitable Argentinian mine and laying off almost a third of their total workforce (which corresponds to the third I’ve lost in it so far).  I’m no expert on how this layoff will affect the stock, but my guess is this may stop the bleeding.

And that’s a sour point to me.  I like fundamental investing over technical trading because I usually profit when a business (and employees) succeed together.  I want to win when others win.  I don’t want to recover when others get laid off just before Christmas.

I hope they can find other work and that their families will be okay.

As far as the broad market is concerned, the sector model’s move to XLU is hardly bullish.  And the money-flow into XLU is unusually strong for the model.

Something negative is afoot.

That lump of coal I looked at last week keeps peeking out of its stocking.

Tim