Sector Model
|
XLF
|
1.55%
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
SR
|
6/2/2014
|
-15.51%
|
173
|
ESI
|
8/4/2014
|
-38.23%
|
110
|
STRA
|
8/18/2014
|
28.55%
|
96
|
PBI
|
8/25/2014
|
-6.56%
|
89
|
KFY
|
9/29/2014
|
3.57%
|
54
|
IQNT
|
10/6/2014
|
42.08%
|
47
|
EDU
|
10/27/2014
|
-0.04%
|
26
|
PLT
|
11/6/2014
|
-1.31%
|
16
|
BKE
|
11/10/2014
|
2.12%
|
12
|
CPSI
|
11/17/2014
|
-4.50%
|
5
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
S&P
|
Annualized
|
13.08%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
25.84%
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
22.91%
|
Rotation: selling PBI; buying AP.
After selling CLF last week, the steel industry took a
nosedive and came back into the model’s buying window. AP is losing money at the moment, but has low
debt and low price to book value.
Once again we are looking at “value” in terms of “worth more
dead than alive.”
Oh well.
The specific industries represented in the buy window
continue to be a confusing mix:
EDUC
|
ELECEQ
|
ELECTRNX
|
FUNL SVC
|
HLTHSYS
|
HUMAN
|
INSLIFE
|
MARITIME
|
SEMI-EQP
|
STEEL
|
WIRELESS
|
Bull or Bear?
Maritime is an interesting choice – indicating a potential
bottoming in commodities. It gives some
comfort to the selection of AP. But the
price action on CLF after the sale makes my head spin. Even with the 13% spike on Friday, it’s down
for the week.
The Sector Model is struggling to find a new high, trailing
the broad market for the week:
Regular readers of the blog can see the back-test
results for the Sector Model. Those
back-test numbers are the basis for the blue benchmark line on the graph.
Now – this benchmark is just a rolling average for all
returns during the total period of back-tests and live trading added
together. It does not account for the
variable advantage rates the model shows in different kinds of markets.
Using correlations from the back-tests, for instance, we can
construct an expected advantage for the model given any set of hypothetical S&P
yearly returns:
SPY%
|
Sector%
|
Advantage%
|
50%
|
57%
|
7%
|
40%
|
49%
|
9%
|
30%
|
40%
|
10%
|
20%
|
32%
|
12%
|
10%
|
24%
|
14%
|
0%
|
16%
|
16%
|
-10%
|
7%
|
17%
|
-20%
|
-1%
|
19%
|
-30%
|
-9%
|
21%
|
-40%
|
-17%
|
23%
|
-50%
|
-26%
|
24%
|
The take away here is that the worse the broad market does,
the better the model looks. Graphically
this would be:
In a bear the model would still lose money – but not as much
as the S&P. The worse the market gets, the greater advantage the model
gains.
The hardest part, of course, is holding on during those
market downturns.
The reason I’m saying this, of course, is to keep myself
calm during a rather concerning sector ratio alignment:
In spite of the zero interest rate policy, we have to keep
in mind that the far larger demographic
trends are bearish, with another likely downturn starting next year. These demographics don’t start to ease until
after 2018.
The only short term solution would be… immigration.
Now don’t get excited.
We’ve killed off about 57
million babies since 1973.
Legalizing 5 million parents with American born babies isn’t enough to
fix it.
Tim
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