|
Sector Model
|
XLI
|
0.00%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
ESI
|
8/4/2014
|
-27.67%
|
138
|
|
EDU
|
10/27/2014
|
-8.05%
|
54
|
|
PLT
|
11/6/2014
|
2.57%
|
44
|
|
UVV
|
12/2/2014
|
7.12%
|
18
|
|
FSLR
|
12/5/2014
|
-3.62%
|
15
|
|
JOY
|
12/8/2014
|
-8.39%
|
12
|
|
SWHC
|
12/9/2014
|
1.97%
|
11
|
|
MRVL
|
12/10/2014
|
-3.86%
|
10
|
|
RS
|
12/11/2014
|
-3.33%
|
9
|
|
INT
|
12/15/2014
|
0.68%
|
5
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
12.89%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
25.34%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
21.71%
|
No rotation.
The Sector Model is limping back upward, but a bad data feed
at the beginning of the month kept it in XLB instead of XLF for most of the
market collapse. Hence, the recovery
started from too low:
Still outperforming the S&P, but I’m looking for a
better data source than the free Yahoo feed.
The switch to XLI happened after the close on Friday, so I’ll
be watching the gaps on Monday.
So much for jumping in and out of sectors.
One sector, however, has reached a good lifetime buy point:
energy. One example is XOM.
The stock fell to two standard deviations below the long
term regression line and bounced. That
regression line shows a typical appreciation of 37% per year, and is about 30%
below that line. If it were to advance
by 60% to 70% in the next year, it would merely reach an average value point.
One always has to watch fundamentals in an individual stock,
of course. Simply buying XLE would get
around that fundamental step, and would allow for other kinds of energy to take
the place of oil one day.
In other words, if one had a stash of money to park –
forever – then XLE should be a good place to do so.
I may take a position in the sector myself and just hold it
long term.
In any case, energy is at a generational low, and hasn’t
been this good a buy other than October 1994 and July 2010.
Tim
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