|
Sector Model
|
XLB
|
1.24%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
SR
|
6/2/2014
|
-24.25%
|
187
|
|
ESI
|
8/4/2014
|
-29.77%
|
124
|
|
KFY
|
9/29/2014
|
6.06%
|
68
|
|
EDU
|
10/27/2014
|
-4.43%
|
40
|
|
PLT
|
11/6/2014
|
1.44%
|
30
|
|
BKE
|
11/10/2014
|
-0.57%
|
26
|
|
CPSI
|
11/17/2014
|
-2.70%
|
19
|
|
GRMN
|
11/24/2014
|
-1.96%
|
12
|
|
UVV
|
12/2/2014
|
2.09%
|
4
|
|
FSLR
|
12/5/2014
|
0.41%
|
1
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
13.12%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
26.24%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
22.74%
|
Rotation: selling GRMN; buying JOY.
We bought JOY about this same time last year, to limited
effect.
At least it was positive.
Everything about power related industries scares the hell out of me
right now. Energy stocks are in
freefall. The Sector Model shows XLE in
the “avoid” category.
FSLR was my first toe in the energy sector. JOY is the next. I’m not optimistic, but since I have the
world’s worst instincts, that may be a good thing.
What matters is that the price has fallen more than breadth
and volume in these industries and the balance sheet for JOY is still
strong. There is an SEC investigating
pending. JOY’s earnings report is due in
11 days. The new EPA rules are devastating
to this industry as well.
About the only thing going for coal is that it is one of the
few resources that can compete with cheap Saudi oil – if the White House would
allow it to do so…
In any case, I’m splitting the middle between FSLR and
JOY. JOY makes sense from a pragmatic
point of view, and FSLR makes sense from a politically driven point of view. Whatever shortcomings one has the other may
compensate for.
Meanwhile the Sector Model remains solid:
Basic Materials are holding up in spite of falling oil.
As for the market as a whole, we are holding in a late bull
formation:
Just like last year, I’m grabbing my lump of coal and
wishing JOY to the world.
Tim
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