2/15/2015 Conclusion: the S&P Without QE

All of this brings to the mind the question: so just how big was the 2009-2015 "bull market" if you discount quantitative easing?

It's more of a dead cat bounce than a bull market.

If you freeze the money supply at the same level it was in March 2009, then the current level of the S&P would be 1156.

My point in all of this is that a market that has never really gone up can hardly be primed for a crash.  It is not long overdue for a bear market; it's long overdue for a true bull market.