|
Sector Model
|
XLU
|
-2.39%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
UVV
|
12/2/2014
|
17.14%
|
110
|
|
JOY
|
12/8/2014
|
-21.00%
|
104
|
|
RS
|
12/11/2014
|
-2.11%
|
101
|
|
GNW
|
1/20/2015
|
1.10%
|
61
|
|
AGCO
|
1/23/2015
|
7.48%
|
58
|
|
ALB
|
2/10/2015
|
0.75%
|
40
|
|
ISBC
|
2/17/2015
|
0.85%
|
33
|
|
MPEL
|
2/25/2015
|
-8.29%
|
25
|
|
SSYS
|
3/3/2015
|
-6.38%
|
19
|
|
PWR
|
3/9/2015
|
-1.02%
|
13
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
12.52%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
23.01%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
19.45%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
56.71%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
120.06%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
96.75%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
10.49%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
6.93%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2015
|
||
|
S&P
|
53.06%
|
2.39%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
122.60%
|
-1.14%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
101.13%
|
-2.18%
|
It’s been a while, so I’m including the full returns.
The Sector Model recovered at the baseline, but further
weakness in the broad market could cause it to fall below it for an extended
time. The baseline is not a base, but an
average, around which the model should fluctuate over time:
That said, XLU is not a positive choice for the broad market
and doesn’t do so well for itself either.
For the Full Model, the choice of industries is a bit more
positive:
|
TOBACCO
|
Bear
|
|
UTILCENT
|
Bear
|
|
CHEMDIV
|
Bull
|
|
ELECTRNX
|
Bull
|
|
ENGCON
|
Bull
|
|
HEAVYTRK
|
Bull
|
|
PUBLISH
|
Bull
|
|
RAILROAD
|
Bull
|
|
RECREATE
|
Bull
|
|
COAL
|
Top
|
|
GASDIVRS
|
Top
|
The majority is still bull, per a Sam Stovall type of
analysis.
Mr. Market is smoking a cigarette while he is trying to stay
warm in an early spring that’s still snowing in the North East. He’s trying to stay up with the latest news
while driving a truck and listening to the radio.
We’ve entered one of those times where everyone is so
uncertain of the future market direction that they are funneling money into the
most boring set of industries they can.
Will the Fed raise rates or won’t they? Are they raising
rates because the economy is good, or is the economy bad because they are
raising rates? Is energy cheap? Will it get even cheaper?
Notice that “market up” or “market down” always hangs in the
balance.
The big money is going for the boring trade.
Boring is less exciting, but more profitable in the long
run.
Tim
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