5/10/2015 Long and Short Benchmark views

Sector Model	XLE	-1.09%
Full Model	Date	Return	Days
JOY	12/8/2014	-17.83%	153
AGCO	1/23/2015	15.11%	107
SSYS	3/3/2015	-43.83%	68
PWR	3/9/2015	1.55%	62
BHE	3/31/2015	-1.84%	40
CBI	4/2/2015	0.31%	38
MTZ	4/9/2015	-4.14%	31
HUN	4/28/2015	-0.35%	12
CCL	4/30/2015	3.96%	10
NE	5/7/2015	-2.68%	3
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	12.18%
Sector Model	Annualized	21.82%
Full Model	Annualized	18.54%
S&P	Total	57.31%
Sector Model	Total	117.75%
Full Model	Total	95.52%
Sector Model	Advantage	9.64%
Full Model	Advantage	6.36%
	Previous	2015
S&P	53.06%	2.78%
Sector Model	122.60%	-2.18%
Full Model	101.13%	-2.79%

 

First my computer broke down and then when I finally got that problem solved I caught a bug that put me in bed for a couple of days. Still shaky, but finally having an opportunity to look at the market, my data, and how to reset.

PUBLISH	Bear
THRIFT	Bear
TOBACCO	Bear
AUTO	Bull
B2B	Bull
ELECTRNX	Bull
ENGCON	Bull
SHOE	Bull
STEEL	Bull
COAL	Top
OILFIELD	Top

 

The industries, like the sector model, are lining up for a market top:

 

Keep in mind that the sector model tries to stay a month ahead of price and the full model a quarter ahead. Calling a top does not mean it’s time for a correction, but instead time for a bit of exuberance.

If I were a market timer, I’d be long.

Since I’m not a market timer, I’m long.

Now for some perspective on the model. This year the model is dragging, but since the launch of the sector fund last year it is still significantly ahead of the broad market, beating it by over 19% in less than 18 months:

The benchmark line is the average daily performance of the 14 year back-test applied to the sector fund since launch last year. As long as the model performs as back-tested, then it is behaving normally. After Friday’s action, the model is less than 0.75% below the benchmark for expected performance since January 2014.

My own private performance goes back a bit further, to 5/31/2011, and there is a slight advantage of the model above the back-test, but still within a normal range:

 

All of this is to say that the sector model has been behaving normally.

The full model still has some catching up to do.

But that’s another topic.

Tim