Sunday, May 17, 2015

5/17/2015 Drill, Baby, Drill!


Sector Model
XLE
-2.41%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
JOY
12/8/2014
-16.28%
160
AGCO
1/23/2015
15.79%
114
SSYS
3/3/2015
-44.71%
75
PWR
3/9/2015
4.77%
69
BHE
3/31/2015
-0.98%
47
CBI
4/2/2015
14.94%
45
MTZ
4/9/2015
-12.84%
38
HUN
4/28/2015
-2.37%
19
NE
5/7/2015
-2.68%
10
DRQ
5/15/2015
-0.31%
2
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
12.20%
Sector Model
Annualized
21.29%
Full Model
Annualized
18.86%
S&P
Total
57.80%
Sector Model
Total
114.85%
Full Model
Total
98.27%
Sector Model
Advantage
9.09%
Full Model
Advantage
6.66%
Previous
2015
S&P
53.06%
3.10%
Sector Model
122.60%
-3.48%
Full Model
101.13%
-1.42%

 

The Full Model is recovering after I found and eliminated the source of the data error form Value Line.  My only conundrum is that the error keeps returning unless I delete and reload the program – even after deleting all artifacts from previous installations.

A most pernicious problem, but at least I know the gremlin is there and can kill it whenever I see the tell-tale signs of the error.

The Sector Model continues to waffle around its benchmark:



 

Not much to say about “normal.”  Normal is a good thing.

Energy is the call on the sector model, and the full model’s “ideal” portfolio is 70% in the oil industry!

Benchmark Electronics
BHE
ELECTRNX
Chicago Bridge & Iron
CBI
ENGCON
MasTec
MTZ
ENGCON
CARBO Ceramics
CRR
OILFIELD
Dril-Quip Inc.
DRQ
OILFIELD
Helmerich & Payne
HP
OILFIELD
Noble Corp. plc
NE
OILFIELD
National Oilwell Varco
NOV
OILFIELD
RPC Inc.
RES
OILFIELD
Superior Energy Svcs.
SPN
OILFIELD

 

I don’t rotate that aggressively, but if I were starting in cash, I’d have an extremely concentrated portfolio.

Tim

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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