The Full Model sold ARLP and bought CRR with a 3% favorable gap.
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Sunday, June 28, 2015
6/28/2015 What to do when you're wrong
|
Sector Model
|
XLE
|
-5.93%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
PWR
|
3/9/2015
|
4.84%
|
111
|
|
CBI
|
4/2/2015
|
10.09%
|
87
|
|
MTZ
|
4/9/2015
|
6.52%
|
80
|
|
NE
|
5/7/2015
|
-12.41%
|
52
|
|
DRQ
|
5/15/2015
|
0.22%
|
44
|
|
RES
|
5/19/2015
|
-4.42%
|
40
|
|
SPN
|
5/28/2015
|
-9.45%
|
31
|
|
ARLP
|
6/10/2015
|
-13.58%
|
18
|
|
PKX
|
6/17/2015
|
0.94%
|
11
|
|
NOV
|
6/23/2015
|
0.51%
|
5
|
|
(Since
5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
11.57%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
18.51%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
18.11%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
56.23%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
99.85%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
97.11%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
6.95%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
6.55%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2015
|
||
|
S&P
|
53.06%
|
2.07%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
122.60%
|
-10.22%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
101.13%
|
-2.00%
|
Both models had a hard week, with the market continuing to
skate along on fumes.
Sector configuration continues to resemble a market top:
As I mentioned before, since my models look ahead, a market
top is NOT a time to jump and run, but a time to look for some euphoria.
I could use some euphoria right now.
The short and long view of the Sector Model show the current
angst in perspective. First the short
view:
And now the long (15 year) view:
The important point of comparison is the trend lines. In the short view we are substantially below
the trend line, and in the long view we are slightly above.
Although it feels abnormal at the moment, it would be
entirely normal for us to fall a bit more and break the long term trend that
hasn’t been touched since 2013.
What’s important to keep in mind is that no year will be
exactly average. Some years will be above and some below. The key is to know
what your long term strategy is and how you are performing against it.
Define your strategy ahead of time. Measure it. Keep it in
mind. And you won’t get caught up in the euphoria or the panic. You will
inevitably face both.
Tim
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
Monday, June 15, 2015
Sunday, June 14, 2015
6/14/2015 Mr. Market's Drug Dealer is in hiding
|
Sector Model
|
XLU
|
-3.35%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
JOY
|
12/8/2014
|
-23.65%
|
188
|
|
PWR
|
3/9/2015
|
4.98%
|
97
|
|
CBI
|
4/2/2015
|
11.22%
|
73
|
|
MTZ
|
4/9/2015
|
-0.16%
|
66
|
|
NE
|
5/7/2015
|
-6.66%
|
38
|
|
DRQ
|
5/15/2015
|
0.27%
|
30
|
|
RES
|
5/19/2015
|
2.83%
|
26
|
|
SPN
|
5/28/2015
|
-1.91%
|
17
|
|
NUS
|
6/8/2015
|
-1.10%
|
6
|
|
ARLP
|
6/10/2015
|
-6.27%
|
4
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
11.58%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
18.93%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
18.81%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
55.67%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
101.43%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
100.60%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
7.35%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
7.23%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2015
|
||
|
S&P
|
53.06%
|
1.71%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
122.60%
|
-9.51%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
101.13%
|
-0.27%
|
The Sector Model continues its short term weakness:
Long term, it has almost fallen to its trend-line:
All of this looks rather normal on a chart, but it doesn’t help
that feeling in your gut when it’s real money.
And, being human, I’ve spent the past few weeks
experimenting with different models, only to confirm that this is the best I
can do. When weakness comes, it’s best to experiment offline so that you don’t
mess up your real strategy.
Even the full model is stalled.
And for that matter, the entire market is stalled.
Breadth and volume remain slack while the market coasts on
fumes.
The industries are slightly bearish now:
|
HOTELGAM
|
Bear
|
|
INSLIFE
|
Bear
|
|
POWER
|
Bear
|
|
TELESERV
|
Bear
|
|
THRIFT
|
Bear
|
|
TOBACCO
|
Bear
|
|
CHEMDIV
|
Bull
|
|
ELECTRNX
|
Bull
|
|
ENGCON
|
Bull
|
|
ENTTECH
|
Bull
|
|
HEAVYTRK
|
Bull
|
Mr. Market has taken out a life insurance policy because he
realizes that his smoking and gambling problem can’t be good for his health. He’s
even taken out a loan to cover his habit, and he lives by his internet
connection so that he can stream the latest movies and games and whatever
gadget is the latest one to make him forget his worries.
But eventually he has to get back into his Tractor Trailer
and haul his latest load of construction equipment to the next hoped for boom
town.
But the old boom towns have dried up. The oil wells are
abandoned. There is too much power and not enough real business to use it.
Mr. Market is depressed. He could use a fix, but the
liquidity dealing Fed has gone into hiding.
Tim
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