6/14/2015 Mr. Market's Drug Dealer is in hiding

Sector Model	XLU	-3.35%
Full Model	Date	Return	Days
JOY	12/8/2014	-23.65%	188
PWR	3/9/2015	4.98%	97
CBI	4/2/2015	11.22%	73
MTZ	4/9/2015	-0.16%	66
NE	5/7/2015	-6.66%	38
DRQ	5/15/2015	0.27%	30
RES	5/19/2015	2.83%	26
SPN	5/28/2015	-1.91%	17
NUS	6/8/2015	-1.10%	6
ARLP	6/10/2015	-6.27%	4
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	11.58%
Sector Model	Annualized	18.93%
Full Model	Annualized	18.81%
S&P	Total	55.67%
Sector Model	Total	101.43%
Full Model	Total	100.60%
Sector Model	Advantage	7.35%
Full Model	Advantage	7.23%
	Previous	2015
S&P	53.06%	1.71%
Sector Model	122.60%	-9.51%
Full Model	101.13%	-0.27%

 

The Sector Model continues its short term weakness:

Long term, it has almost fallen to its trend-line:

All of this looks rather normal on a chart, but it doesn’t help that feeling in your gut when it’s real money.

And, being human, I’ve spent the past few weeks experimenting with different models, only to confirm that this is the best I can do. When weakness comes, it’s best to experiment offline so that you don’t mess up your real strategy.

Even the full model is stalled.

And for that matter, the entire market is stalled.

Breadth and volume remain slack while the market coasts on fumes.

The industries are slightly bearish now:

HOTELGAM	Bear
INSLIFE	Bear
POWER	Bear
TELESERV	Bear
THRIFT	Bear
TOBACCO	Bear
CHEMDIV	Bull
ELECTRNX	Bull
ENGCON	Bull
ENTTECH	Bull
HEAVYTRK	Bull

 

Mr. Market has taken out a life insurance policy because he realizes that his smoking and gambling problem can’t be good for his health. He’s even taken out a loan to cover his habit, and he lives by his internet connection so that he can stream the latest movies and games and whatever gadget is the latest one to make him forget his worries.

But eventually he has to get back into his Tractor Trailer and haul his latest load of construction equipment to the next hoped for boom town.

But the old boom towns have dried up. The oil wells are abandoned. There is too much power and not enough real business to use it.

Mr. Market is depressed. He could use a fix, but the liquidity dealing Fed has gone into hiding.

Tim