Sector Model
|
XLE
|
-5.93%
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
PWR
|
3/9/2015
|
4.84%
|
111
|
CBI
|
4/2/2015
|
10.09%
|
87
|
MTZ
|
4/9/2015
|
6.52%
|
80
|
NE
|
5/7/2015
|
-12.41%
|
52
|
DRQ
|
5/15/2015
|
0.22%
|
44
|
RES
|
5/19/2015
|
-4.42%
|
40
|
SPN
|
5/28/2015
|
-9.45%
|
31
|
ARLP
|
6/10/2015
|
-13.58%
|
18
|
PKX
|
6/17/2015
|
0.94%
|
11
|
NOV
|
6/23/2015
|
0.51%
|
5
|
(Since
5/31/2011)
|
|||
S&P
|
Annualized
|
11.57%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
18.51%
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
18.11%
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
56.23%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
99.85%
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
97.11%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
6.95%
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
6.55%
|
|
Previous
|
2015
|
||
S&P
|
53.06%
|
2.07%
|
|
Sector Model
|
122.60%
|
-10.22%
|
|
Full Model
|
101.13%
|
-2.00%
|
Both models had a hard week, with the market continuing to
skate along on fumes.
Sector configuration continues to resemble a market top:
As I mentioned before, since my models look ahead, a market
top is NOT a time to jump and run, but a time to look for some euphoria.
I could use some euphoria right now.
The short and long view of the Sector Model show the current
angst in perspective. First the short
view:
And now the long (15 year) view:
The important point of comparison is the trend lines. In the short view we are substantially below
the trend line, and in the long view we are slightly above.
Although it feels abnormal at the moment, it would be
entirely normal for us to fall a bit more and break the long term trend that
hasn’t been touched since 2013.
What’s important to keep in mind is that no year will be
exactly average. Some years will be above and some below. The key is to know
what your long term strategy is and how you are performing against it.
Define your strategy ahead of time. Measure it. Keep it in
mind. And you won’t get caught up in the euphoria or the panic. You will
inevitably face both.
Tim
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