Sector Model
|
XLU
|
0.96%
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-43.94%
|
546
|
DY
|
10/30/2015
|
2.31%
|
466
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
24.31%
|
442
|
UPLMQ
|
12/1/2015
|
84.29%
|
434
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
13.34%
|
419
|
CMP
|
2/19/2016
|
20.75%
|
354
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
18.12%
|
351
|
ENOC
|
3/15/2016
|
-20.08%
|
329
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
7.02%
|
327
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
2.39%
|
271
|
AVB
|
5/24/2016
|
-0.74%
|
259
|
AEM
|
6/7/2016
|
0.35%
|
245
|
ESRX
|
6/13/2016
|
-11.21%
|
239
|
AMED
|
6/16/2016
|
-8.32%
|
236
|
FRO
|
6/27/2016
|
-11.53%
|
225
|
ASTE
|
7/12/2016
|
21.76%
|
210
|
MFC
|
9/1/2016
|
39.14%
|
159
|
SFM
|
9/8/2016
|
-5.84%
|
152
|
CFFN
|
9/12/2016
|
9.70%
|
148
|
FIG
|
12/6/2016
|
16.14%
|
63
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
S&P
|
Annualized
|
9.82%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
15.81%
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
12.60%
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
70.43%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
130.60%
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
96.46%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
5.99%
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
2.78%
|
|
Previous
|
2017
|
||
S&P
|
66.43%
|
2.40%
|
|
Sector Model
|
120.54%
|
4.56%
|
|
Full Model
|
91.27%
|
2.71%
|
A lot of ink has been spilled speculating on the Trump
trade. Initially we were supposed to
have a crash, and then we had the largest bounce since Herbert Hoover. Then we had the greatest stall in seventy
years.
What gives?
Well, nothing so far.
Trump hasn’t had time to do very much that could affect the economy, and
the promises he is making on Taxes and Regulations (good) are being weighed
down by the threats he is making against trade and entitlement reform
(bad). The first two are faster acting
than the last two, but businesses have to think long term, and are unlikely to
follow any euphoria in the market with meaningful reinvestment and expansion.
In terms of long term regressions, the Sector Model is
sitting right on its regression line.
Going even further long term, the S&P is also sitting
right on its regression line.
These are good places to park when we don’t know how the
future will go. If I were a timer, I’d
have to flip a coin. Since I’m not a
timer, all my coins stay invested.
But don’t try to over guess this thing. Markets move slower than rhetoric. When you don’t know what to do, the best
thing to do is nothing. And when you DO
know what to do, the best thing to do is still nothing.
Happy parking.
Tim
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