|
Sector Model
|
XLB
|
0.08%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
BT
|
8/11/2015
|
-41.79%
|
621
|
|
DY
|
10/30/2015
|
39.56%
|
541
|
|
TMK
|
11/23/2015
|
27.80%
|
517
|
|
NVR
|
12/16/2015
|
26.15%
|
494
|
|
CMP
|
2/19/2016
|
0.93%
|
429
|
|
NVR
|
2/22/2016
|
31.46%
|
426
|
|
ENOC
|
3/15/2016
|
-22.13%
|
404
|
|
AMWD
|
3/17/2016
|
27.87%
|
402
|
|
CASY
|
5/12/2016
|
-1.17%
|
346
|
|
AVB
|
5/24/2016
|
6.83%
|
334
|
|
AEM
|
6/7/2016
|
-7.86%
|
320
|
|
ESRX
|
6/13/2016
|
-12.45%
|
314
|
|
AMED
|
6/16/2016
|
4.47%
|
311
|
|
FRO
|
6/27/2016
|
-11.55%
|
300
|
|
ASTE
|
7/12/2016
|
5.39%
|
285
|
|
MFC
|
9/1/2016
|
27.57%
|
234
|
|
SFM
|
9/8/2016
|
15.55%
|
227
|
|
CFFN
|
9/12/2016
|
6.95%
|
223
|
|
FIG
|
12/6/2016
|
58.88%
|
138
|
|
PMC
|
3/16/2017
|
2.67%
|
38
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
9.91%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
16.32%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
13.02%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
74.60%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
143.85%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
105.83%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
6.41%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
3.11%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2017
|
||
|
S&P
|
66.43%
|
4.91%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
120.54%
|
10.57%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
91.27%
|
7.61%
|
The market news sites are talking about the Trump
trade. Has it fizzled? Will it get a second life? Should we be in the market or out of the
market?
Since I’m always in, the question isn’t the Trump trade, but the Clontz trade. What industries are in high supply and low demand? In other words, what’s on a fire sale?
The stock I’m looking at right now is GNRC – Generac Holdings. They make generators and do well when the weather is chaotic and oil prices are high… neither of which is true at the moment. Oh yes, the march for science is saying that the weather will get destructive as a result of climate change, but it hasn’t been very destructive lately.
Since I’m always in, the question isn’t the Trump trade, but the Clontz trade. What industries are in high supply and low demand? In other words, what’s on a fire sale?
The stock I’m looking at right now is GNRC – Generac Holdings. They make generators and do well when the weather is chaotic and oil prices are high… neither of which is true at the moment. Oh yes, the march for science is saying that the weather will get destructive as a result of climate change, but it hasn’t been very destructive lately.
When do people buy generators? Well, right after they experience a power
outage. A hurricane comes through and
everyone who needed a generator two months ago will buy one now that they no
longer need it. That’s just human
nature.
But this brings us to two different kinds of stocks: a quick
trade or a longer term investment. A
trade is in high demand and shrinking supply.
More and more dollars are chasing fewer free shares. An investment is just the opposite: fewer and
fewer dollars are chasing stocks that no one wants to hold onto.
That’s GNRC. No one
seems to want it.
And that’s why I’m watching it.
Tim
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