Condition
|
Bear Market
|
||
S&P Target
|
1280
|
||
Small Portfolio
|
IAU & XLF
|
4.14%
|
|
Margin (short)
|
XLK
|
5.03%
|
|
Position
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
GCI
|
7/14/2011
|
4.01%
|
345
|
CSGS
|
10/3/2011
|
34.73%
|
264
|
NLY
|
10/25/2011
|
11.81%
|
242
|
KBR
|
10/27/2011
|
-17.97%
|
240
|
VG
|
10/27/2011
|
-42.86%
|
240
|
BT
|
1/4/2012
|
2.79%
|
171
|
PDLI
|
3/7/2012
|
8.91%
|
108
|
SAI
|
5/30/2012
|
7.04%
|
24
|
XEC
|
6/5/2012
|
-1.91%
|
18
|
DECK
|
6/15/2012
|
-6.23%
|
8
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
-0.71%
|
|
Small Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
3.89%
|
|
Mousetrap
|
Annualized
|
4.66%
|
|
Margin
|
Annualized
|
9.39%
|
NOTE: selling PDLI and buying FCX on Monday.
ALSO: covering the 100% short position on XLK and adding a
10% long position in XLF.
Both are explained below…
Any trading system has a number of elements that need to
work in harmony:
1)
The technicals (i.e. money flowing into a stock
through investor interest)
2)
The fundamentals (i.e. money flowing into a
company through business)
3)
Exit criteria
4)
Position size
I’ve worked on each of these in turn and have finally
reached the fourth: position size.
Red is the S&P, blue is fixed, green is variable.
In tests of the basic sector model, a fixed size at 100% invested outperforms the S&P, but a variable sized position, ranging from 78-130% invested has less of a drawdown and better returns (i.e. less risk and more reward).
In tests of the basic sector model, a fixed size at 100% invested outperforms the S&P, but a variable sized position, ranging from 78-130% invested has less of a drawdown and better returns (i.e. less risk and more reward).
Back tests are one thing – and live tests are quite another.
In any case, I’ve thought long and hard about this, and
there is no good way to properly apply the variable investment allocations in
the Mousetrap investments. They will
remain as before: 10% of the size of the portfolio, each.
What will change is the way I report the margin.
Instead of:
Margin (short)
|
XLK
|
5.03%
|
It will become (on Monday morning):
10% Margin
|
XLF (long)
|
5.03%
|
That’s a little more information than you’ve been
getting. Right now I’ve simply been
hedged: 100% long the Mousetrap stocks and 100% short XLK. The Margin will no longer be either fully
hedged or in cash, but will instead either be partially long or partially
short.
If the size of my portfolio on the variable sized model is
supposed to be 90%, for instance, instead of selling one of the Mousetrap
stocks I would be 10% short XLK. However,
right now the variable sized model is calling for a 10% long position on
Margin.
At the current price it’s actually 9.31%, but I’ll round it
to 10%.
In addition I will make a mid week post on the blog to show
limit order settings to add or take away from the margin position. I’ll start with 10% increments, but I may end
up doing 5% increments. It depends on
how often the margin sizes would trigger a trade. I really don’t want to trade more than I have
to.
Also, by making limit orders I can set it at night and
forget about it during the day.
Finally, on Monday I plan to sell PDLI and buy FCX, Freep't-McMoRan C&G in the
MINING industry. They’ve been slammed in
the deflation scare and look like a good bargain at the moment. PDLI is in the drug industry, and looks to have
gained some price in anticipation of good news from the Supreme Court this
week. Instead of selling the news, I
plan to sell before the news.
I’ll be on
vacation this week. Have a fabulous week
and good luck in the market!
Best,
Tim
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