06/30/2012 short and simple

Small Portfolio	XLF & IAU	7.87%
Position	Date	Return	Days
GCI	7/14/2011	13.48%	352
CSGS	10/3/2011	36.71%	271
NLY	10/25/2011	9.53%	249
KBR	10/27/2011	-14.79%	247
VG	10/27/2011	-38.91%	247
BT	1/4/2012	6.38%	178
SAI	5/30/2012	9.39%	31
XEC	6/5/2012	9.80%	25
DECK	6/15/2012	-8.29%	15
FCX	6/25/2012	6.40%	5
S&P	Annualized	1.16%
Small Portfolio	Annualized	7.26%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	8.19%

After talking to some friends who were trying (unsuccessfully) to follow the model, I’m simplifying the blog.

They all basically asked for long-only, un-timed, and un-margined stock ideas.

So I’ll be sharing my long-only, un-timed, and un-margined stock ideas.

When I started sharing this, I wasn’t reporting my short and hedging ideas for the first few months, and it seems that was probably the best way to go.  Right now all my margined plays have totaled a 13.76% annualized return – but it’s been a choppy sideways market for the past year, and long term a long only position WILL eventually grind out an advantage.

I do consult two sources for market timing – my friend Len and the site www.effectivevolume.com – and I’ll leave timing in their capable (and superior) hands.  My goal is to create a model that can be used by slow pokes who don’t short the market and don’t use margin.

For you slow pokes out there – the next scheduled stock rotation is this coming Friday, July 6, 2012.

The small portfolio will still be open to end of day trades, about 3:30-4:00.  Those should average about a trade a month (and cost me a grand total of five minutes of my day).  The large portfolio should average a trade every one to two weeks.

My one day trading experiment this week was exciting, but unworkable.  I was on vacation this week and don’t plan to STAY on vacation.  I have a job that I enjoy. I don’t have time to day trade.  And this blog is for folks like me.

As far as the world markets are concerned, the fact that I’m dropping hedging from the model doesn’t mean I’m not hedging myself.  I don’t believe this hogwash in Europe, and I don’t have any grand hopes for a political miracle in this country either.  And for you folks who fondly remember Ronald Reagan… even if this were 1980, we would still have two years of bear market left to go.

Before this is over I expect the S&P, my small portfolio, AND my large portfolio, to fall underwater at least one more time.

Tim