|
Small Portfolio
|
XLF & IAU
|
15.83%
|
|
|
Position
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
DECK
|
6/15/2012
|
-33.65%
|
145
|
|
RIMM
|
7/16/2012
|
13.66%
|
114
|
|
SEAC
|
9/25/2012
|
11.51%
|
43
|
|
CAJ
|
9/25/2012
|
-8.52%
|
43
|
|
DDAIF
|
9/25/2012
|
-9.40%
|
43
|
|
NSC
|
10/8/2012
|
-9.63%
|
30
|
|
WMK
|
10/22/2012
|
-0.88%
|
16
|
|
CFI
|
10/31/2012
|
-0.65%
|
7
|
|
CGX
|
11/5/2012
|
13.59%
|
2
|
|
ALTE
|
11/6/2012
|
-2.96%
|
1
|
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
2.55%
|
|
|
Small Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
10.99%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
16.04%
|
Rotation: selling NSC; buying MO.
This one is a bit of a scare for the economy. NSC is in the railroad industry and MO is in
the tobacco industry. In other words, we
won’t be transporting real goods, but we’ll be smoking to make ourselves feel
better.
A lot of talk about a new bear market / recession. I’ll discuss it more this weekend, but I
believe we’ve BEEN in a bear market since May 2011, and it’s just been a
sideways move instead of down because of all the quantitative easing.
Take a look at the annualized return rate for the S&P
during that time. Right, 2.55%. Heck, that was less than our intraday move
today!
In the same light, we are due a recession going into 2013,
but if there is no fiscal cliff it’s likely to be sideways as well. Technically that’s called a “growth recession”
instead of a “boring economy.”
I’d rather the latter phrase.
As for the election – again more this weekend – but it’s not
the end of the world that we have a Democrat White House and Senate and a
Republican House. In fact, it’s a good
thing.
In any case, today was a nice panic washout. We are oversold now and SHOULD bounce.
At least the Mousetrap is holding its own through all this
noise.
Tim
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