|
Sector Model
|
XLU & XLK
|
0.75%
|
|
|
Style Model
|
Small Value
|
||
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
ABX
|
4/11/2013
|
-23.24%
|
171
|
|
TTM
|
5/6/2013
|
2.87%
|
146
|
|
BTI
|
7/1/2013
|
4.84%
|
90
|
|
CLH
|
7/8/2013
|
10.68%
|
83
|
|
FAST
|
7/22/2013
|
7.39%
|
69
|
|
VAR
|
8/2/2013
|
1.34%
|
58
|
|
OUTR
|
8/19/2013
|
-18.27%
|
41
|
|
QCOM
|
9/3/2013
|
1.66%
|
26
|
|
FLR
|
9/16/2013
|
5.71%
|
13
|
|
GCO
|
9/24/2013
|
0.51%
|
5
|
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
10.33%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
22.75%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
28.37%
|
Rotation: selling CLH; buying NEM.
Since the news from Washington D.C. has been so
contradictory, I’ve spent the time making a few upgrades to my model.
One is hitting today, and another hitting soon.
Today’s change is NEM: it’s in the same industry as
ABX. In some limited circumstances that
can occur, and today is one of those circumstances. Although not part of the evaluation, it’s
indicative to note that the entire industry is two standard deviations below
its long term median regression. GDX,
for instance is at 25.11, while the long term mean is 46.08 – an 84%
difference.
That’s like the S&P being at 1015.
The suppression of gold has to do with global deflationary
pressures that are being aggressively fought by the Fed. The hint of taper has been taken off the
table, and the continued dysfunction in D.C. will accompany a continuation of
Fed easing.
Although nothing is ever certain, gold is a reasonable bet
at this point.
The next change is in the sector model. It is currently running two ETFs, and when
one of those rotates off in the near future I will retain only one. The most likely scenario is for XLK to
outperform and then cash out, leaving XLU.
But we’ll see what happens.
No need for market comment.
Everything is being held hostage by partisan politics. And remember: it takes two parties to really
make a mess. This is a shared pile of
poop.
Tim
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