Style Model
|
Mid Blend
|
||
Sector Model
|
XLU
|
3.77%
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
ABX
|
4/11/2013
|
-19.90%
|
297
|
NEM
|
9/30/2013
|
-22.16%
|
125
|
EW
|
10/28/2013
|
-15.49%
|
97
|
JOY
|
11/18/2013
|
-6.75%
|
76
|
OXY
|
11/27/2013
|
-9.68%
|
67
|
MUR
|
12/23/2013
|
-10.98%
|
41
|
SWM
|
12/31/2013
|
-9.05%
|
33
|
NKE
|
1/7/2014
|
-5.92%
|
26
|
BTI
|
1/15/2014
|
-4.54%
|
18
|
MGEE
|
1/30/2014
|
1.53%
|
3
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
S&P
|
Annualized
|
11.09%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
23.70%
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
26.02%
|
Rotation: selling MGEE; buying TM.
Yes, yes – too short a fling with MGEE, but it was fun while
it lasted…
Right now an “ideal” hold on the model would be:
NEM
|
GOLDSILV
|
JOY
|
COAL
|
ABX
|
GOLDSILV
|
TM
|
AUTO
|
HMC
|
AUTO
|
TTM
|
AUTO
|
AEM
|
GOLDSILV
|
ED
|
UTILEAST
|
PPL
|
UTILEAST
|
FE
|
UTILEAST
|
Meanwhile the position of the sector and style grid has been
steadily moving further along a bearish trajectory:
Last weekend the position was in Small Value Utilities, then
midweek is was Large Growth Utilities, and today it is in Mid Blend Utilities.
This is a classical shifting of assets into progressively
more defensive positions.
Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and Utilities are defensive.
Value vs. Growth is Defensive.
Large cap vs. Small cap is Defensive.
Maximum defensiveness would be in the lower right hand
quadrant, and a new rally would be marked by a move into the upper left hand
quadrant: Cyclicals.
AUTO – where our Toyota Motors call would fall, is a
Cyclical industry.
The question is, “how”?
How could we be deep into bearishness with a call for an
Auto company to show up on the model?
Where would such recovery come from in light of the taper?
The key, I think, is in the fact that Coal and GoldSilv are
also holding strong on the model.
It seems to me that the money-flow is showing us that the
taper is STILL easing. That is, we haven’t
stopped printing money. We just started printing it a bit slower.
In any case, the sector and style chart is cylindrical in both
dimensions: If you drop off the bottom you’ll find yourself at the top; or if
you move beyond the right you’ll re-enter from the left. “Below” finance is Cyclicals. To the “right” of Large Value is Small
Growth.
That’s why markets suddenly reverse when all hope seems to
be lost. When it cannot possibly get any
worse, it doesn’t.
Right now we’re right in the middle of the lower right hand
quadrant. Quite a boring ambiguous time.
If we were in Large Value Finance I’d get excited. In Mid Blend Utilities it’s just… eh…
However, I would like to point out that “eh” ain’t so
bad. Take a look at the year to date
performance of my “eh” Sector selection versus the far more exciting S&P:
I’ll take “eh” right now.
Tim
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