Sunday, August 10, 2014

08/10/2014 A Hard Drive Crash, and a Stock Crash, on the same day!


Style Model
Small Value
Sector Model
XLF
-1.58%
Large Portfolio
Date
Return
Days
TIVO
4/23/2014
12.68%
109
SHOO
4/28/2014
-5.03%
104
PM
5/27/2014
-2.14%
75
SR
6/2/2014
8.95%
69
CFI
6/9/2014
-2.46%
62
FRAN
6/16/2014
-8.50%
55
BT
7/14/2014
-5.16%
27
RRD
7/21/2014
4.81%
20
CHFC
7/28/2014
-1.50%
13
ESI
8/4/2014
-39.97%
6
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
11.99%
Sector Model
Annualized
24.99%
Large Portfolio
Annualized
23.19%

 

Rotation: selling BT; buying BSET

Last Monday my hard drive failed, and so did my trading.  The switch from NUS to ESI was catastrophic.  But later in the week NUS also crashed.  The fact that both of them collapsed was a good hint that some recent simplifications I’ve made to the Full Model were not well framed.

Reset on the hard drive.

Reset on the Full Model.

A cathartic week.

On the Sector Model, not much changed:



 

Boring.  Still above the S&P, still above the back-test baseline.  Nothing exciting like ESI on Monday!

I could go for a bit of boredom.

In any case, the reason I simplified the Full model’s internal metrics was because I was pressed for time and thought the simplification would work.  It didn’t work, and so I’m back to the more time consuming metrics.

More time, less money.  Less time, more money. Funny how it always works out that way.

The lesson here is that we can’t take shortcuts.  The ONLY shortcut is to put everything into an index and walk away.

If you want to beat the index, you need to put in the time.

No way around it.

I have more to write, but… no time tonight.

Tim

PS – for those who’ve been getting weekly emails, I have to apologize.  My email list was one of the casualties of the hard drive crash…

 

 

 

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