Friday, November 17, 2017

Sunday, October 29, 2017

10/29/2017 Performance Metrics


Sector Model
XLE
-1.50%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
BT
8/11/2015
-47.48%
810
TMK
11/23/2015
42.80%
706
NVR
12/16/2015
95.33%
683
CMP
2/19/2016
2.00%
618
NVR
2/22/2016
103.57%
615
AMWD
3/17/2016
46.23%
591
CASY
5/12/2016
0.68%
535
AEM
6/7/2016
-8.68%
509
ESRX
6/13/2016
-18.07%
503
AMED
6/16/2016
-0.22%
500
FRO
6/27/2016
-13.48%
489
ASTE
7/12/2016
-10.64%
474
MFC
9/1/2016
53.20%
423
SFM
9/8/2016
-8.89%
416
CFFN
9/12/2016
7.65%
412
FIG
12/6/2016
57.25%
327
FOSL
5/11/2017
-39.20%
171
HIBB
7/25/2017
2.29%
96
FOSL
7/27/2017
-20.47%
94
HZO
8/1/2017
6.73%
89
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
10.67%
Sector Model
Annualized
17.13%
Full Model
Annualized
13.20%
S&P
Total
91.58%
Sector Model
Total
175.69%
Full Model
Total
121.55%
Sector Model
Advantage
6.46%
Full Model
Advantage
2.54%
Previous
2017
S&P
66.43%
15.11%
Sector Model
120.54%
25.01%
Full Model
91.27%
15.83%


The model continues to outperform, with the Sector Model maintaining a lead for an IRA tax free account and the Full Model maintaining the lead for a taxable account.

The Full Model calculates holding periods based on after tax returns, to maximize the annualized return rate in a regular investment account.



The chart is generated by using the return rates of all stocks selected by the model since 5/31/2011, even after they were sold, in order to determine the ideal holding period.  Currently that ideal holding period for any given stock is 2289 calendar days.

There are basically two types of trades: momentum and mean reversion.

And there are two types of investment: passive and active.

Passive investment is simply purchasing an index fund and holding it into retirement.  For 401Ks, that’s about the only choice anyone has.

For anyone who has moved a 401K into a self driven IRA account, the options are whether to try to trade actively or to stick with another index fund.  SPY is the simplest – an ETF that mimics the return of the entire S&P index of 500 large cap stocks.  For the vast majority of folks this is infinitely better than trying to actively trade, because in active trading you are fighting against high frequency trading robots that self adapt to whatever tactic will scare you into selling low and trick you into buying high.

I know, because that’s exactly what happened to me when I started trading.

I couldn’t compete with those lightning fast robots.

So I made my own robot – one so glacially slow that it would starve out both the fast robots and the tax man.  It won’t make 60% a year.  But it won’t lose 90% of my retirement to those twin thieves either.

It’s also slow enough to follow, if you’d like.

You’re welcome.

Tim







Thursday, September 28, 2017

Thursday, September 14, 2017

9/14/2017 Sector Trade

Another whipsaw.  The Sector Model sold XLE and bought XLP.

A cash account would be moving from cash back into XLP now that the previous trade cleared.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

9/13/2017 Sector Trade

The Sector Model sold XLI and (bought) XLE before the close.

However, in a non margin account the model would be in cash or remain in XLI (user preference) because of the unsettled wait time.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Thursday, August 31, 2017