Sunday, February 18, 2018

2/18/2018 Weekend Update

Sector Model
XLP
2.25%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
BT
8/11/2015
-51.41%
922
TMK
11/23/2015
45.88%
818
NVR
12/16/2015
93.42%
795
CMP
2/19/2016
-2.29%
730
NVR
2/22/2016
101.57%
727
AMWD
3/17/2016
97.29%
703
CASY
5/12/2016
3.55%
647
AEM
6/7/2016
-13.12%
621
ESRX
6/13/2016
-0.90%
615
AMED
6/16/2016
12.07%
612
FRO
6/27/2016
-43.77%
601
ASTE
7/12/2016
5.85%
586
MFC
9/1/2016
53.44%
535
SFM
9/8/2016
37.30%
528
CFFN
9/12/2016
-0.12%
524
FOSL
5/11/2017
0.55%
283
HIBB
7/25/2017
90.84%
208
FOSL
7/27/2017
31.52%
206
HZO
8/1/2017
44.78%
201
CMPR
12/27/2017
32.12%
53
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
11.11%
Sector Model
Annualized
16.22%
Full Model
Annualized
15.51%
S&P
Total
103.03%
Sector Model
Total
174.64%
Full Model
Total
163.60%
Sector Model
Advantage
5.11%
Full Model
Advantage
4.40%
Previous
2018
S&P
98.38%
2.34%
Sector Model
172.95%
0.62%
Full Model
145.63%
7.32%


No comments this week.  Just the update.









Monday, February 12, 2018

2/12/2018 Sector Trade

Had to wait till the end of the day for XLU to catch up.

The Sector Model sold XLU and bought XLP before the close with a less than 0.1% negative gap.  Close enough.

Sunday, February 11, 2018

2/11/2018 Who Needs a Crystal Ball?

Sector Model
XLU
1.60%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
BT
8/11/2015
-51.53%
915
TMK
11/23/2015
39.13%
811
NVR
12/16/2015
68.81%
788
CMP
2/19/2016
6.89%
723
NVR
2/22/2016
75.92%
720
AMWD
3/17/2016
87.78%
696
CASY
5/12/2016
-0.75%
640
AEM
6/7/2016
-13.63%
614
ESRX
6/13/2016
-5.53%
608
AMED
6/16/2016
11.95%
605
FRO
6/27/2016
-44.34%
594
ASTE
7/12/2016
2.02%
579
MFC
9/1/2016
53.98%
528
SFM
9/8/2016
33.89%
521
CFFN
9/12/2016
-1.43%
517
FOSL
5/11/2017
-41.97%
276
HIBB
7/25/2017
86.26%
201
FOSL
7/27/2017
-24.09%
199
HZO
8/1/2017
42.76%
194
CMPR
12/27/2017
24.82%
46
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
10.43%
Sector Model
Annualized
15.65%
Full Model
Annualized
13.96%
S&P
Total
94.39%
Sector Model
Total
164.98%
Full Model
Total
140.08%
Sector Model
Advantage
5.22%
Full Model
Advantage
3.53%
Previous
2018
S&P
98.38%
-2.01%
Sector Model
172.95%
-2.92%
Full Model
145.63%
-2.26%


In market downturns there are two strategies:


1) Raise cash and look for buying opportunities
2) Watch for overcorrections and look for rotation opportunities.

The first option requires you to know the future.  You have to know when to sell and when to buy.

The second option requires you to know the present.  You have to compare which stocks over-corrected relative to stocks you own.

The same will hold true in the morning for the Sector Model.  Two sectors are in the buy zone.  The one that over-corrects at the open will be the one I will buy.

Tim