Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Sunday, December 3, 2017

12/3/2017 Updated Returns

Sector Model
XLP
1.27%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
BT
8/11/2015
-47.51%
845
TMK
11/23/2015
48.80%
741
NVR
12/16/2015
109.80%
718
CMP
2/19/2016
7.59%
653
NVR
2/22/2016
118.65%
650
AMWD
3/17/2016
86.83%
626
CASY
5/12/2016
6.64%
570
AEM
6/7/2016
-11.90%
544
ESRX
6/13/2016
-15.15%
538
AMED
6/16/2016
4.94%
535
FRO
6/27/2016
-25.59%
524
ASTE
7/12/2016
-4.64%
509
MFC
9/1/2016
62.32%
458
SFM
9/8/2016
20.22%
451
CFFN
9/12/2016
8.13%
447
FIG
12/6/2016
58.06%
362
FOSL
5/11/2017
-53.67%
206
HIBB
7/25/2017
43.13%
131
FOSL
7/27/2017
-39.40%
129
HZO
8/1/2017
44.11%
124
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
10.94%
Sector Model
Annualized
17.95%
Full Model
Annualized
14.48%
S&P
Total
96.60%
Sector Model
Total
192.92%
Full Model
Total
141.22%
Sector Model
Advantage
7.01%
Full Model
Advantage
3.54%
Previous
2017
S&P
66.43%
18.12%
Sector Model
120.54%
32.82%
Full Model
91.27%
26.11%


The Sector Model has hit a snag behind the scenes, now that I’ve lost my real time data source.  I have an alternate source that I can use for the constituent stocks within the ETFs, but the constant need to continue to find alternate data sources is annoying.

I can blame Yahoo.

The good news is that the Full Model does not require real time data, and I may decide to move all assets over to it, if it continues to improve relative to the Sector Model.

For now, though, the Sector Model remains in place.

Oh, the taxes, regulations, and impeachment odds?

What does that have to do with investing?

Tim


Friday, November 24, 2017

Friday, November 17, 2017

Sunday, October 29, 2017

10/29/2017 Performance Metrics


Sector Model
XLE
-1.50%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
BT
8/11/2015
-47.48%
810
TMK
11/23/2015
42.80%
706
NVR
12/16/2015
95.33%
683
CMP
2/19/2016
2.00%
618
NVR
2/22/2016
103.57%
615
AMWD
3/17/2016
46.23%
591
CASY
5/12/2016
0.68%
535
AEM
6/7/2016
-8.68%
509
ESRX
6/13/2016
-18.07%
503
AMED
6/16/2016
-0.22%
500
FRO
6/27/2016
-13.48%
489
ASTE
7/12/2016
-10.64%
474
MFC
9/1/2016
53.20%
423
SFM
9/8/2016
-8.89%
416
CFFN
9/12/2016
7.65%
412
FIG
12/6/2016
57.25%
327
FOSL
5/11/2017
-39.20%
171
HIBB
7/25/2017
2.29%
96
FOSL
7/27/2017
-20.47%
94
HZO
8/1/2017
6.73%
89
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
10.67%
Sector Model
Annualized
17.13%
Full Model
Annualized
13.20%
S&P
Total
91.58%
Sector Model
Total
175.69%
Full Model
Total
121.55%
Sector Model
Advantage
6.46%
Full Model
Advantage
2.54%
Previous
2017
S&P
66.43%
15.11%
Sector Model
120.54%
25.01%
Full Model
91.27%
15.83%


The model continues to outperform, with the Sector Model maintaining a lead for an IRA tax free account and the Full Model maintaining the lead for a taxable account.

The Full Model calculates holding periods based on after tax returns, to maximize the annualized return rate in a regular investment account.



The chart is generated by using the return rates of all stocks selected by the model since 5/31/2011, even after they were sold, in order to determine the ideal holding period.  Currently that ideal holding period for any given stock is 2289 calendar days.

There are basically two types of trades: momentum and mean reversion.

And there are two types of investment: passive and active.

Passive investment is simply purchasing an index fund and holding it into retirement.  For 401Ks, that’s about the only choice anyone has.

For anyone who has moved a 401K into a self driven IRA account, the options are whether to try to trade actively or to stick with another index fund.  SPY is the simplest – an ETF that mimics the return of the entire S&P index of 500 large cap stocks.  For the vast majority of folks this is infinitely better than trying to actively trade, because in active trading you are fighting against high frequency trading robots that self adapt to whatever tactic will scare you into selling low and trick you into buying high.

I know, because that’s exactly what happened to me when I started trading.

I couldn’t compete with those lightning fast robots.

So I made my own robot – one so glacially slow that it would starve out both the fast robots and the tax man.  It won’t make 60% a year.  But it won’t lose 90% of my retirement to those twin thieves either.

It’s also slow enough to follow, if you’d like.

You’re welcome.

Tim