Sunday, June 25, 2017

6/25/2017 Catching up

Sector Model
XLU
-0.41%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
BT
8/11/2015
-46.32%
684
TMK
11/23/2015
26.71%
580
NVR
12/16/2015
46.30%
557
CMP
2/19/2016
-0.68%
492
NVR
2/22/2016
52.46%
489
ENOC
3/15/2016
4.51%
467
AMWD
3/17/2016
39.06%
465
CASY
5/12/2016
-6.13%
409
AVB
5/24/2016
11.02%
397
AEM
6/7/2016
-4.00%
383
ESRX
6/13/2016
-14.08%
377
AMED
6/16/2016
29.93%
374
FRO
6/27/2016
-21.23%
363
ASTE
7/12/2016
-4.89%
348
MFC
9/1/2016
33.78%
297
SFM
9/8/2016
11.84%
290
CFFN
9/12/2016
1.60%
286
FIG
12/6/2016
61.48%
201
PMC
3/16/2017
16.26%
101
FOSL
5/11/2017
-31.37%
45
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
10.24%
Sector Model
Annualized
16.76%
Full Model
Annualized
13.21%
S&P
Total
80.74%
Sector Model
Total
156.18%
Full Model
Total
112.41%
Sector Model
Advantage
6.52%
Full Model
Advantage
2.97%
Previous
2017
S&P
66.43%
8.60%
Sector Model
120.54%
16.16%
Full Model
91.27%
11.05%

Just a quick catch up.  I’ve been pre-occupied with testing the new dataset, now that Yahoo is unusable.

The model has remained dormant during this time, which is by design. 

And given the data interruption that design worked out well.

Tim


Thursday, May 25, 2017

5/25/2017 When Your Data Dies

Models are never better than the data that feeds them, and so when my data source dried up I was in a fix.

I’ve been using the same data source for the better part of a decade, so it was unnerving.  I wasn’t about to retest everything from scratch.  So I needed data in the same format, which reproduced the same numbers on the model that I currently operated with.

For one week I used Google as a bandaid, but Google had annoying gaps in its history.  So it was at best a temporary measure, and an encouragement to find something fast.

Thankfully, I found a replacement.  But I apologize for going dark.

The Sector Model is now at full speed, and I only have to complete the conversion on the Full Model before the next trade.  Since it only trades one stock per quarter, there was no similar urgency to the Sector Model.  Hopefully I’ll have it back up by the middle of June.



5/25/2017 Sector Trade

The Sector Model sold XLP and bought XLU before the close.


Thursday, May 11, 2017

5/11/2017 Sector Trade

The Sector Model sold XLU and bought XLP with no gap two minutes after the open.




Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Sunday, April 23, 2017

4/23/2017 A Stock that No One Seems to Want

Sector Model
XLB
0.08%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
BT
8/11/2015
-41.79%
621
DY
10/30/2015
39.56%
541
TMK
11/23/2015
27.80%
517
NVR
12/16/2015
26.15%
494
CMP
2/19/2016
0.93%
429
NVR
2/22/2016
31.46%
426
ENOC
3/15/2016
-22.13%
404
AMWD
3/17/2016
27.87%
402
CASY
5/12/2016
-1.17%
346
AVB
5/24/2016
6.83%
334
AEM
6/7/2016
-7.86%
320
ESRX
6/13/2016
-12.45%
314
AMED
6/16/2016
4.47%
311
FRO
6/27/2016
-11.55%
300
ASTE
7/12/2016
5.39%
285
MFC
9/1/2016
27.57%
234
SFM
9/8/2016
15.55%
227
CFFN
9/12/2016
6.95%
223
FIG
12/6/2016
58.88%
138
PMC
3/16/2017
2.67%
38
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
9.91%
Sector Model
Annualized
16.32%
Full Model
Annualized
13.02%
S&P
Total
74.60%
Sector Model
Total
143.85%
Full Model
Total
105.83%
Sector Model
Advantage
6.41%
Full Model
Advantage
3.11%
Previous
2017
S&P
66.43%
4.91%
Sector Model
120.54%
10.57%
Full Model
91.27%
7.61%

The market news sites are talking about the Trump trade.  Has it fizzled?  Will it get a second life?  Should we be in the market or out of the market?

Since I’m always in, the question isn’t the Trump trade, but the Clontz trade.  What industries are in high supply and low demand?  In other words, what’s on a fire sale?

The stock I’m looking at right now is GNRC – Generac Holdings.  They make generators and do well when the weather is chaotic and oil prices are high… neither of which is true at the moment.  Oh yes, the march for science is saying that the weather will get destructive as a result of climate change, but it hasn’t been very destructive lately.

When do people buy generators?  Well, right after they experience a power outage.  A hurricane comes through and everyone who needed a generator two months ago will buy one now that they no longer need it.  That’s just human nature.

But this brings us to two different kinds of stocks: a quick trade or a longer term investment.  A trade is in high demand and shrinking supply.  More and more dollars are chasing fewer free shares.  An investment is just the opposite: fewer and fewer dollars are chasing stocks that no one wants to hold onto.

That’s GNRC.  No one seems to want it.

And that’s why I’m watching it.

Tim