Tuesday, June 12, 2012

06/12/2012 stock pick

The model doesn't trade all stock picks, since it rotates on a set schedule (next rotation set for the second week of July).

However, DECK is showing up as the current top pick.  That could change between now and July.

In any case, I'd like to discuss the stock itself.  DECK is something of a one hit wonder that has seen its stockprice cut in half.  Part of that is warm weather.  Part of it is the idea that the core product might be losing its fashion.  Part of it might be that knockoffs can be bought for a fifth of the price.

Accordingly, DECK might be a value trap.  All the trailing fundamentals look great, but the stock wouldn't recover and the product might be history before next winter.

In investing, there is no way to tell.  All the numbers look right, but it could lose anyway.

In other words, if you ever do see a "sure thing," get your glasses checked.  I met a great eye doctor this past weekend...

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