Small Portfolio
|
XLF & IAU
|
8.19%
|
|
Position
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
GCI
|
7/14/2011
|
10.25%
|
367
|
CSGS
|
10/3/2011
|
38.92%
|
286
|
NLY
|
10/25/2011
|
10.64%
|
264
|
KBR
|
10/27/2011
|
-18.93%
|
262
|
VG
|
10/27/2011
|
-42.25%
|
262
|
BT
|
1/4/2012
|
11.22%
|
193
|
SAI
|
5/30/2012
|
3.61%
|
46
|
XEC
|
6/5/2012
|
4.20%
|
40
|
DECK
|
6/15/2012
|
-2.10%
|
30
|
CVX
|
7/5/2012
|
-1.27%
|
10
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
0.77%
|
|
Small Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
7.28%
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
7.41%
|
Sell GCI; buy RIMM
Today the model goes off the deep end and sells a newspaper
to buy a nearly doomed wireless company: RIMM.
We’ve all heard of RIMM: Blackberry, crushed between iPhone
and Android. I still use a Blackberry,
but only because every time I think of getting an iPhone I hear a rumor that
the next iPhone will be so much better that I should wait.
Of course, the next iPhone might not be so revolutionary and
the next Blackberry might finally have a breakthrough – like the new camera
feature that preserves the three seconds BEFORE each shot so you can scroll
back to the instant before your nephew blinked in the family shot.
Right now the camera is the worst feature in
Blackberry. In a few months it will be the
best.
All of this is speculation.
The model only knows that the company still has strong
fundamentals and the industry has strong technical accumulation.
And that’s enough.
You can’t trade unknowns.
In any case, both models are holding a small annualized gain
over the S&P. Gold has been holding
back the small portfolio (if I had just traded sectors it would be up
13.31%). Fundamentals have been holding
back the large portfolio – perhaps the most maddening part of all.
I’m looking forward to Value stocks actually showing some of
their value for a change.
Tim
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