09/22/2013 You can't control the market, but you can control yourself

Sector Model	XLU & XLK	1.54%
Style Model	Small Value
Large Portfolio	Date	Return	Days
ABX	4/11/2013	-22.91%	163
TTM	5/6/2013	1.17%	138
OKE	6/17/2013	20.67%	96
BTI	7/1/2013	5.84%	82
CLH	7/8/2013	10.47%	75
FAST	7/22/2013	7.73%	61
VAR	8/2/2013	3.96%	50
OUTR	8/19/2013	-25.95%	33
QCOM	9/3/2013	4.19%	18
FLR	9/16/2013	7.14%	5
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P	Annualized	10.94%
Sector Model	Annualized	23.11%
Large Portfolio	Annualized	28.53%

 

Rotation: selling FAST; buying CXW.

Rather bizarre rotation – selling a building supply company and buying a REIT.  No clue what that means, but I’ll follow the model.  CXW has basically gone nowhere in forever.  If we’re headed toward some kind of market decline, that may not be such a bad thing…

No market comment today, though.  Too many external variables to get any meaningful read on market internals.

Taper, no taper, shut down, no shut down, war, no war.  Eh.  Can’t control it.  What I CAN control is the methodology of my model.  The data is continuing to mature, and the model is definitely developing into two sets: one for an IRA account and one for a Taxable account:

A taxable account clearly performs better for longer term holding periods, but I do not yet have a rotation point.  I’m quite intrigued by the resilience of the selections well past two years from their original trade.  The spike at one year, of course, is the difference between long and short term capital gains taxes.

Lesson for now: track your trades – when you open them, when you close them… and AFTER you close them to see how they would have done on a longer hold.  You might discover something useful, as I am here.

Tim