Saturday, June 21, 2014

06/21/2014 This is your brain on QE; any questions?


Style Model
Small Value
Sector Model
XLU
2.35%
Large Portfolio
Date
Return
Days
BX
4/14/2014
11.97%
68
TIVO
4/23/2014
3.73%
59
SHOO
4/28/2014
-6.29%
54
PWR
5/12/2014
3.67%
40
JRN
5/19/2014
0.12%
33
BT
5/22/2014
1.82%
30
PM
5/27/2014
5.28%
25
SR
6/2/2014
10.14%
19
CFI
6/9/2014
-1.20%
12
FRAN
6/16/2014
1.02%
5
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
13.15%
Sector Model
Annualized
26.90%
Large Portfolio
Annualized
26.63%

 

No trades for the Full Model. The Sector Model may have a trade later this week.

The kind of outperformance we’ve seen in Utilities this year is normal for a bear market:



 

The final bear sector to outperform would be Financials (which is a close second right now on the Sector Model).

But, but, but… it isn’t a bear market!

Eh, thank QE.  This is all just smoke and mirrors.  Careful inter-market analysts have been destroyed by constant signals to short.

They are going to get equally destroyed by signals to go long when we finally hit a true bull market configuration right when QE is ending.

Stop thinking about WHEN to be in the market, and just focus on WHERE.

Tim

 

 

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