Sunday, September 14, 2014

09/14/2014 Aflack!


Style Model
Large Value
Sector Model
XLF
0.30%
Large Portfolio
Date
Return
Days
SHOO
4/28/2014
-3.20%
138
SR
6/2/2014
9.54%
103
CFI
6/9/2014
-1.01%
96
RRD
7/21/2014
8.02%
54
CHFC
7/28/2014
1.80%
47
ESI
8/4/2014
-44.51%
40
BSET
8/11/2014
-2.42%
33
STRA
8/18/2014
2.34%
26
PBI
8/25/2014
-0.67%
19
CLF
9/2/2014
-6.17%
11
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
12.57%
Sector Model
Annualized
25.45%
Large Portfolio
Annualized
22.73%

 

Rotation: selling CHFC; buying AFL.

All I can hear is that stupid bird screeching “Aflack!”

In any case, the Sector Model keeps plugging away, hovering around the 30% mark for the year:



 

The full model took a huge hit from ESI, but it’s left me recalculating and recalculating again to decide the best course of action going forward.

The current struggles are in the concept of combining the sector and style models in stock selection.  Today, the choice of AFL fits the bill.  It is both a financial services company and a large value stock.  If it works, then the full model MAY have better performance going forward.  But I’ll remain skeptical until small caps function correctly.

Time will tell.

As for the broad market – large value turns out to have a better historical correlation than I originally suspected.  During Large Value selections the S&P has historically advanced at a 20% annualized rate.  That bodes well for a rally here.

Time will tell.

Yes – I just said that twice.  Ultimately time shows us whether our theories were correct or not.  Those who ignore those lessons will be more and more convinced they are “right” while their retirement accounts go nowhere.

Theories are places to start – not places to stop.

The current sector and style matrix calls for Large Value Financials: the money is in, well, money.

Large Value
Mid Value
Small Value
Large Blend
Small Growth
Mid Blend
Large Growth
Mid Growth
Small Blend
Finance
1
2
3
4
5
6
9
22
43
Industrial
7
10
12
14
20
23
33
51
68
Utilities
8
11
13
15
21
24
35
53
69
Energy
16
17
18
19
26
29
40
61
72
Staples
25
27
30
31
42
48
57
70
76
Cyclicals
28
32
34
36
49
50
63
71
77
Healthcare
37
39
44
46
55
60
65
74
79
Materials
38
41
45
47
56
62
66
75
80
Technology
52
54
58
59
64
67
73
78
81

 

Tim

 

 

 

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